The RSI Ghost: Why Bitcoin’s Lack of Divergence Signals a Potential Structural Collapse

Bitcoin’s current price action is flashing a rare and unsettling technical signal: the total absence of a bullish RSI divergence. Sophisticated analysis of the daily timeframe reveals that since the 2022 cyclical lows, Bitcoin has established four definitive bottoms, each preceded by a clear divergence between price and momentum. Historically, these anomalies acted as high-conviction reversal triggers, allowing bulls to reclaim dominance.

However, the present structure is fundamentally different. As Bitcoin maneuvers through its current drawdown, the RSI is merely tracking price lower without any bullish discrepancy. For institutional-grade strategists, this suggests that the local floor has not yet been established. The market may require a final, more violent capitulation to manufacture the necessary divergence required for a trend pivot. Without this technical prerequisite, the risk of a continued descent remains elevated, as momentum continues to confirm the prevailing bearish trend rather than challenging it. $BTC