The crypto market has a way of keeping both excitement and patience in equal measure. Right now, the conversation is dominated by the anticipation of altseason, the period when altcoins surge relative to Bitcoin. Yet, despite the buzz, Bitcoin [BTC] remains the central focus of capital and attention. Its dominance has recently hovered around 60%, signaling that the bulk of investor confidence is still locked in the original cryptocurrency rather than its alternatives.
Historical patterns show that altcoins tend to shine in cycles, often following long stretches where they underperform against Bitcoin. The rallies in 2018 and 2021 are textbook examples of this rhythm. In both cases, altcoins experienced dramatic gains, but these were bookended by extended periods where BTC held sway. Today, many altcoins are once again sitting near long-term support levels relative to Bitcoin, mirroring conditions seen before previous altseasons. However, analysts are increasingly suggesting that the next meaningful window for altcoin dominance may not arrive immediately but is more likely to materialize in 2026.
Charts and historical data reinforce this cautious outlook. The altcoin season index—a tool that measures the relative performance of altcoins against Bitcoin—currently reads around 35. This figure is well below the level traditionally associated with sustained altcoin outperformance. In other words, while the conditions hint at potential growth, the market is pricing in patience rather than expecting an instant breakout. A decisive shift in Bitcoin dominance, coupled with sustained higher readings on this index, is typically required to signal a genuine altseason.
Despite this measured environment, several developments point to a possible Ethereum-led rally next year. Ethereum [ETH] has historically been at the forefront of altcoin surges, often setting the pace for other tokens to follow. Its potential to do so again in 2026 is reinforced by growing institutional engagement. For instance, major financial institutions, including JPMorgan, have recently launched on-chain funds on Ethereum, signaling a broader embrace of the network beyond retail and speculative traders. At the same time, stablecoin volumes are reaching record highs, creating a foundation of liquidity that could facilitate larger altcoin movements.
Kevin Rusher, founder of RAAC, highlights this dynamic succinctly: investors—both institutional and retail—are increasingly seeking yield within Ethereum’s decentralized finance ecosystem. “As we head into 2026, investors can rely on ETH along with the other big guns,” he noted. These trends suggest that Ethereum is likely to remain a central player in any altcoin momentum that emerges, potentially driving the broader market forward when the timing aligns.
Yet, not everyone frames altseason as a single, predictable event. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, offers a different perspective, arguing that altcoin rallies never truly vanish—they simply move. According to Hayes, the reason many investors feel like they’ve missed out on altcoin gains is not because opportunities are absent, but because they were holding the wrong assets. In a recent discussion, he emphasized, “There is always an altcoin season happening… and if you’re always saying altcoin season isn’t there, it’s because you didn’t own what went up.”
Hayes also cautions against assuming that the next altcoin cycle will mirror previous ones. Traditional narratives and past winners may not repeat, and fresh projects may capture the spotlight instead. He points to examples like Hyperliquid, which rose from a low single-digit launch price to substantial gains, and Solana, which experienced a dramatic rebound after its 2022 collapse. These cases illustrate that opportunities are constantly evolving and that attentive market participants can benefit by identifying emerging trends rather than chasing historical patterns.
For investors, the takeaway is nuanced. Bitcoin continues to dominate, offering stability in a market prone to volatility. At the same time, the conditions for altcoin growth are quietly forming, with Ethereum positioned as a potential catalyst for the next surge. Hayes’ insights remind us that altcoin gains are rarely absent—they are simply shifting among different assets and sectors. Success in navigating these cycles depends less on predicting a single moment and more on understanding where value is currently moving.
In summary, the next meaningful altcoin season may not arrive overnight, and patience will be essential. Historical cycles, institutional engagement, and on-chain liquidity all point toward a fertile landscape in 2026, particularly around Ethereum. Meanwhile, the broader lesson for market participants is to maintain a flexible approach, staying attuned to emerging trends rather than fixating on historical patterns. In a market that never truly rests, altseason isn’t a single event—it’s a continuous opportunity that shifts shape and form, rewarding those who recognize its subtle rhythms.
