#BREAKING
📌 THIS IS HOW ENERGY SHOCKS TRANSMIT INTO MARKETS
When oil becomes geopolitical: • Inflation expectations reprice
• Central banks lose flexibility
• Risk assets feel it next, not first
🛢️ Higher crude doesn’t stay in energy. It leaks into: ➡️ Freight & supply chains
➡️ CPI prints
➡️ Bond yields
➡️ FX volatility
💵 USD vs. Liquidity Paradox Short-term: oil shocks can support USD
Medium-term: sanctions + seizures fracture trade settlement
➡️ More bilateral deals
➡️ Less dollar certainty
➡️ More fragmentation
🧠 CAPITAL FLOW RESPONSE In periods of: • Sanction escalation
• Trade-route risk
• Energy weaponization
Capital historically looks for: 🌍 Portable assets
🔐 Settlement-neutral rails
⏳ Supply that can’t be seized
⚠️ Markets don’t price seizures as “one-offs.” They price precedent.
If tankers can be taken: ➡️ Risk premium expands
➡️ Insurance costs jump
➡️ Supply tightens further
➡️ Volatility compounds
🔥 This isn’t just oil volatility. 🔥 It’s macro instability feedback. 🔥 And those moves cascade fast.
👀 Watch crude. 👀 Watch yields. 👀 Watch how risk reacts after energy spikes.
This is how shocks spread.
