Someone DM’d me asking why I don’t post many trades at CMP, only limit orders, and why I’m mainly focused on a BTC short that I’ve been holding since 118k.
I’m guessing many of you have the same question, so here’s my reasoning.
1. We are in a bear market. There’s honestly not much to do right now except wait.
“So if we’re in a bear market, why aren’t you always shorting?”
I am. I’ve been holding a BTC short for the past four months. I warned you countless times that this was the top and not to expect much more upside. Right now, I’m waiting for a much better opportunity, one that I’m best at, buying bottoms.
2. I believe we’re closer to the end of the downside than the beginning.
Most people only understand what’s happening after it has already played out. The same thing happens in bull markets, and it’s happening again now. This bear market didn’t just start. It’s been here for months, as I’ve been saying. The real bear phase began around 99k, which I’ve mentioned many times.
As I said in my last BTC big update, I’m watching 72k as a strong support. That’s where I plan to add spot positions. We need to see a bounce there. If we don’t, then we likely enter an accumulation zone between 50k and 72k, and I think we’ll stay in that range for a long time before the next bull run begins.
I’m basically waiting for two things, which I’ve always shared here:
BTC reclaiming 99k to add more short positions
A potential bottom around 72k
As for altcoins, they’re in a very bad state right now. Things can change, but until they do, don’t try to be a hero and buy blindly. Some alts look cheap, but there’s still a good chance we see another 30% drop before they form a proper bottom.
The bottom line is simple: protect your liquidity and wait for better opportunities. If you really feel the need to buy something now, reduce your position size in case you’re wrong.
And of course, I’ll be here to share opportunities when they actually show up.
Merry Christmas in advance to those who still have money 🎄
