BTC
4 year cycles, why the top is not in necessarily, and why bears are overconfident right here, one final hint
Alright, giving one more hint about the heated argument currently going on, of the large, large majority ever so confidently calling the top on BTC now just because November has been the 35th month of this cycle since the low, and because we always have topped around month 35 or 36 so far, and for some reason, that is why it should top again, "guaranteed".
That, is what everyone is saying today into this 80k low. (And no, they didn't say it at the 125k top, so let's lock that emotional aspect in our minds too).
If your belief is that the top is in now, all power to you. And you could very well be right. And I respect your view.
From a data analysis perspective, it is absolutely ludicrous how much confidence people put behind that single idea.
More-over, how much confidence is placed behind one idea consisting of just 3 historic data points. Not the first time we see this type of show on here, so let's approach this a bit more carefully.
If you are serious about investing, you know how I always go on about using more than just 3 data points. 7 should be the least, ideally from a few low-correlated sources.
Finding the next clue...
... is very simple. Stepping outside of crypto indeed, let's take BTC's bigger brother, gold for example.
The data
Gold, just like BTC, moves in 4 year cycles, but has more resolution at half pace, so essentially, it moves in 8 year cycles. Reasons why this is, I choose to not explain for now, maybe for another tweet. But just keep in mind that moving in 1 8 year cycle is the same as moving in 2 4 year cycles. Cycles are intertwined.
So on the 2 month chart, that means, the cycles play out just like BTC.
On the chart below, clearly visible indeed. Every single low is placed around that 48 candle count mark on the 2M (2 monthly), just like how BTC's low is placed around that 48 candle mark count on the M (monthly)
