1️⃣ Supreme Court & Trump Tariffs
72% chance the U.S. Supreme Court rules the tariffs illegal.
Potential consequence: The U.S. may need to refund ~$200B to importers.
2️⃣ Macro Implications
Lower Inflation Pressure: Tariffs add costs to goods—removing them reduces price pressure.
Improved Liquidity: Refunds inject cash back into the system.
Risk Assets Benefit: Stocks, crypto, and other risk-on assets get breathing room to rally.
3️⃣ Immediate Crypto Reaction
Asset
Price Change
+0.17%
+0.44%
-0.98%
Early reaction shows BTC & ETH stabilizing, while some altcoins may lag due to positioning or liquidity.
4️⃣ Key Takeaways
Macro catalysts matter: Big legal/economic shifts can override short-term technicals.
Crypto positioning: A ruling in favor of refunds could trigger a risk-on environment, potentially benefiting BTC and altcoins.
Timing: These effects may unfold over weeks, not instantly—early positioning could capture upside.
