$BTC has been trading between USD 85,000 and USD 90,000 and has struggled to move higher
As the year draws to a close, two key investor questions emerge: - Can BTC still deliver a Santa Rally? - Does its usual post-halving pattern still apply? History offers a useful sense-check. Median December returns have been negative, with BTC closing higher in only 5 of 12 Decembers through 2024. Notably, November has typically set the tone, while December has tended to be more reactive than directional. That said, today’s market is structurally different. BTC is far more embedded in mainstream finance, with capital increasingly flowing through institutional rails such as funds, custody platforms, and bank-linked access. Heading into early 2026, we favour disciplined, incremental allocations around key support levels for longer term opportunities rather than chasing short-term momentum moves.
