“The Signals Are Flashing Red” — Economist Sounds Recession Alarm
Macro strategist Henrik Zeberg is calling out what he sees as a dangerous blind spot at the heart of U.S. monetary policy.
Despite the analytical firepower of the Federal Reserve, Zeberg argues policymakers are misreading the sequence of the business cycle — and that mistake could prove costly.
His core argument 👇
Recessions aren’t random. They follow a repeatable order of events, and one indicator has never failed to show up before major downturns: unemployment.
According to Zeberg:
Rising unemployment typically lags market optimism but leads recessions
Recent jobless data has climbed to multi-year highs
That move is approaching levels historically associated with recession triggers
The implied probability of a downturn is now material, not marginal
The concern isn’t just if a recession is coming — but that policymakers are underestimating its severity and timing, risking delayed or ineffective responses.
Bottom line:
Markets may still be debating soft landings, but labor data is telling a harsher story. If history rhymes, the economy may already be further along the recession path than official forecasts suggest.
