Ethereum is trading through a transitional phase on Monday, with short-term recovery attempts colliding with unresolved higher-timeframe pressure. After sliding sharply from October highs above $4,700, ETH has spent much of November and December stabilizing above the $2,900–$3,000 zone.
The current phase reflects balance rather than conviction. Buyers are defending key support, but sellers continue to control higher-timeframe structure. Price action shows the market has shifted away from acceleration lower, but it has yet to reclaim levels that would confirm a renewed bullish trend. For now, Ethereum remains range-bound, with rallies treated as tactical rather than directional.
Daily structure shows base formation, not trend recovery
On the daily chart, Ethereum continues to trade below its declining 50-day and 100-day EMAs, clustered in the $3,150-$3,400 region. This band has repeatedly capped upside attempts, evolving into a well-defined supply zone. Above it, the 200-day EMA near $3,405 remains the larger structural barrier. Until ETH can reclaim and hold above this region, upside moves are best viewed as corrective rebounds within a broader consolidation.
At the same time, repeated defenses of the $2,900-$3,000 area suggest longer-term participants are not capitulating. Each dip into that zone has attracted responsive buying, preventing a deeper breakdown despite months of distribution following the October peak. This behavior points to base-building rather than trend exhaustion, but it stops short of signaling a clear reversal.
Momentum indicators align with this neutral stance. Daily RSI has recovered from November lows and now sits just below the 50 mark, reflecting improving momentum without confirming strength. This pattern is typical during basing phases, when sellers lose dominance but buyers remain selective. The absence of strong bullish divergence limits the case for an immediate trend shift, yet the lack of fresh downside momentum also argues against aggressive bearish positioning at current levels.
Intraday recovery improves tone but remains contained
Shorter timeframes offer a more constructive, though still limited, signal. On the 30-minute chart, Ethereum has reclaimed Supertrend support near $2,975, with Parabolic SAR flipping below price. This shift has allowed ETH to grind higher toward the $3,040-$3,080 area, marking a modest recovery from recent lows. Importantly, pullbacks during this move have remained shallow, suggesting active dip buying rather than passive relief rallies.
However, intraday gains continue to stall as price approaches overhead supply. The inability to accelerate beyond the low-$3,100s reinforces the idea that short-term momentum is operating within a broader range rather than initiating a new trend. Until higher-timeframe resistance is cleared, intraday strength is likely to remain tactical.
Spot flow data adds further context. Ethereum has experienced persistent net outflows across much of the year, reflecting distribution during the broader correction. Recent sessions, however, show stabilization rather than renewed selling pressure. The latest inflow print is modest by historical standards, but its timing, alongside price holding key support, suggests selling pressure is no longer accelerating. In previous cycles, similar flow patterns often preceded extended consolidation rather than immediate trend continuation.
Key levels define the next directional test
Structurally, the market now hinges on two clearly defined zones. On the downside, the $2,900–$2,950 region remains critical. A clean daily close below this band would expose ETH to deeper retracements toward $2,750–$2,800, where demand emerged earlier in 2024. On the upside, bulls need a decisive reclaim of $3,150, followed by acceptance above $3,400, to shift the higher-timeframe bias back toward trend continuation. Without that sequence, rallies risk fading into overhead supply.
Previously discussed analysis highlighted that Ethereum’s failure to hold above its 50-day and 200-day averages marked a shift from momentum-driven advance into consolidation. That framework remains intact. While volatility has compressed and downside momentum has cooled, the market has not yet delivered the confirmation required for a bullish verdict.
In summary, Ethereum is transitioning from a corrective decline into a balance phase. Buyers are increasingly willing to defend key levels, but sellers continue to control the higher-timeframe trend. Until ETH can reclaim its long-term moving averages and attract sustained inflows, the prevailing setup favors range trading and selective positioning rather than conviction-driven trends.
