Monero (XMR) continues to trade firmly above the $477 level at the start of the week, following the establishment of a new yearly high last week. A strong combination of bullish on-chain data, rising derivatives activity, and an improving technical structure is reinforcing expectations that XMR could soon break above the psychological $500 resistance.
On-Chain and Derivatives Data Signal Strengthening Bullish Bias
According to data from Santiment, Monero’s Social Dominance—which tracks XMR-related discussions across crypto media—has been trending sharply higher since mid-December. On Monday, the metric reached 1.41%, marking its highest level since November 10.
This surge reflects growing market attention and strengthening bullish sentiment among XMR investors.
On the derivatives side, data from CoinGlass shows that Open Interest (OI) in Monero futures surged to $99.70 million on Sunday, up significantly from $54.01 million on December 10. Although OI has slightly cooled, it remains elevated near $95.42 million, signaling sustained capital inflows and the presence of fresh long positions—both supportive of continued upside momentum.
Meanwhile, aggregated data from CryptoQuant indicates large buy orders from whales in both the spot and futures markets. This behavior suggests that institutional and high-net-worth participants remain confident in XMR’s bullish trajectory, increasing the probability that the current uptrend may extend further.
Monero Price Forecast: Bulls Target a Move Above $500
From a technical perspective, XMR has established a solid support base at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level—drawn from the November 9 high at $470 to the November 21 low at $320—located at $413.04.
After retesting this level, XMR rebounded sharply, rallying more than 14% and setting a new yearly high at $497 on Saturday.
At the time of writing, Monero is trading around $478, maintaining a strong bullish structure above key moving averages.
If buying pressure persists, XMR could extend its rally toward the 141.4% Fibonacci extension at $531.73, confirming a stronger medium-term bullish continuation.
Indicator Outlook
RSI (Daily): Currently near 69, approaching overbought territory—highlighting strong momentum but also signaling the possibility of short-term consolidation.
MACD (Daily): Bullish crossover remains intact, with expanding green histogram bars above the zero line, reinforcing upside continuation.
Trading Plan: XMR/USDT (Educational Purpose)
Bullish Scenario (Buy Setup)
Buy Entry: $470 – $480
Take Profit 1: $500
Take Profit 2: $531
Stop Loss: $448
Risk–Reward: ~1:2.5
📌 Bias: Trend-following buy on pullbacks while price holds above the $460–470 support zone.
Bearish Scenario (Sell Setup – Short-Term Pullback)
Sell Entry: $495 – $500 (rejection zone)
Take Profit: $455 – $460
Stop Loss: $515
📌 Bias: Counter-trend scalp only if strong rejection appears near $500 with bearish confirmation.
Conclusion
Overall, Monero remains technically and fundamentally strong. As long as XMR holds above the $460–470 support zone, the broader outlook favors a bullish continuation, with $500 and $530 acting as key upside targets. However, traders should remain cautious of short-term pullbacks due to elevated RSI levels.
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