I keep coming back to this chart because it explains everything we're seeing in macro right now.
Labor force participation vs government debt as % of GDP (inverted). They track each other almost perfectly.
Here's what's actually happening: governments have been piling up debt to compensate for fewer working-age people. Since 2008, most of that new debt isn't even funding anything productive — it's just servicing old debts while interest payments compound.
The scary part? Demographics are destiny. The workers for the next decade are already born. Or more accurately, they haven't been born.
This means the borrowing and currency debasement we're seeing now isn't temporary. It's not a policy choice that can be reversed. It's going to accelerate because the math doesn't work any other way.
Most people still don't understand this dynamic. But once you see it, you can't unsee it. And it changes how you think about positioning for the next 10 years.
Labor force participation vs government debt as % of GDP (inverted). They track each other almost perfectly.
Here's what's actually happening: governments have been piling up debt to compensate for fewer working-age people. Since 2008, most of that new debt isn't even funding anything productive — it's just servicing old debts while interest payments compound.
The scary part? Demographics are destiny. The workers for the next decade are already born. Or more accurately, they haven't been born.
This means the borrowing and currency debasement we're seeing now isn't temporary. It's not a policy choice that can be reversed. It's going to accelerate because the math doesn't work any other way.
Most people still don't understand this dynamic. But once you see it, you can't unsee it. And it changes how you think about positioning for the next 10 years.