Fed rate freeze looking locked in for July — 82.4% probability according to market pricing.
No surprise here. Powell's been telegraphing this for weeks. The real question isn't July anymore, it's September.
Macro backdrop:
• Inflation still sticky around 3%
• Labor market cooling but not crashing
• Fed wants more data before the next move
For crypto: Rate pause = sideways chop continues. Real volatility comes when cuts actually start flowing. Until then, we're range-bound.
Watch the August Jackson Hole speech. That's where Powell drops hints about September. If he stays hawkish, $BTC stays under pressure. If he pivots dovish, we could see a relief rally into Q4.
Don't fight the Fed. Wait for the actual pivot, not the hopium.
No surprise here. Powell's been telegraphing this for weeks. The real question isn't July anymore, it's September.
Macro backdrop:
• Inflation still sticky around 3%
• Labor market cooling but not crashing
• Fed wants more data before the next move
For crypto: Rate pause = sideways chop continues. Real volatility comes when cuts actually start flowing. Until then, we're range-bound.
Watch the August Jackson Hole speech. That's where Powell drops hints about September. If he stays hawkish, $BTC stays under pressure. If he pivots dovish, we could see a relief rally into Q4.
Don't fight the Fed. Wait for the actual pivot, not the hopium.