🚨 TRUMP TARIFFS UPDATE | MACRO & CRYPTO

The 2025 trade narrative is accelerating as “Reciprocal Tariffs” reshape global markets. Tariff revenue is now running at >$30B per month, and policy risk is rising into 2026.

Key developments:

• Tariff Dividend: Trump confirms plans for $2,000 rebate checks for working families, targeting mid-2026 (Treasury outlining the path).

• Supreme Court Risk: An early-2026 IEEPA ruling could invalidate tariffs, forcing billions in refunds and creating fiscal uncertainty.

• Autos & Materials: EU/German auto exports hit by 15% sliding tariffs; new Section 232 duties on heavy vehicles and copper now active.

Market impact:

• Crypto sensitivity: $BTC and high-beta alts (e.g., $XRP) react sharply to trade-war headlines. Near-term volatility, potential liquidity tailwind if rebates materialize.

• Inflation & sentiment: Trade deficit down, but consumer confidence at 17-month lows as prices absorb a ~16.8% effective tariff rate.

Strategy note:

Watch $DXY. Tariff escalation typically strengthens the dollar (BTC headwind). Any Fed rate-cut signals to counter growth risks could flip the macro fast.

📊 The candles matter.

🛠️ 2026 is being priced today.