Markets are signaling confidence in policy stability.
Data from prediction platform Polymarket shows an 81% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its January meeting next year. In contrast, traders assign an 18% chance to a 25-basis-point rate cut, suggesting limited expectations for near-term monetary easing.
The market backing this forecast is far from quiet. Trading volume has climbed to roughly $49.28 million, indicating strong participation and conviction among bettors who are effectively pricing in a “higher-for-longer” stance.
Such probabilities reflect broader sentiment that the Fed will wait for clearer inflation and labor market signals before making its next move—leaving risk assets and global markets to adjust to steady rates as the new year begins.
