Dogecoin is currently navigating a technically precarious zone, with $0.138 emerging as the critical price point the memecoin must recapture to bolster its long-term outlook.

Closing above $0.138 on three-day and weekly charts would see DOGE surpass both the macro 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level and the 200-week simple moving average (SMA)—a convergence he characterized as "a major positive."

"A reclaim of .138 for #Dogecoin on 3D-1W closes would put it back above the macro .382 and the 200W SMA," he stated, further noting that DOGE is presently "mingle[ing] around in this ‘DCA’ zone."

The focus on higher-timeframe closes is particularly significant.
has consistently positioned $0.138 as a structural pivot, not just an intraday level. He believes that persistent closes beneath this point elevate the risk of a downturn and undermine the overall market structure.

This perspective echoes a previous post from November 22nd, when DOGE was still above $0.138. Back then labeled $0.138 as "massive support," cautioning against losing it on three-day or weekly closes.

In his latest analysis, Kevin once more linked Dogecoin's future to Bitcoin's ability to regain its technical levels. He suggested that a DOGE recovery of $0.138 would "likely coincide with BTC reclaiming the $88,000–$91,000 zone," which he deemed essential for rekindling upward momentum.

A separate analysis, explained his current reservations about Bitcoin's short-term prospects. He pointed out in a Bitcoin-centric post that BTC has been turned away from its crucial 4-hour moving averages nine times since October 12th, and hasn't managed to stay above them for a single day since mid-September.

Though he emphasized the importance of the three-day and weekly timeframes, he maintained that without Bitcoin surpassing those moving averages and reclaiming the $88,000–$91,000 range on higher-timeframe closes, it's challenging to definitively call a bottom, as bearish momentum persists.

"While the 3D-1W TF’s are the main focus, it's worth noting that until BTC reestablishes itself above these key MAs and the 88K-91K zone on 3D-1W, you can't confidently confirm a bottom yet, and the momentum still favors the bears."
"If BTC clears those hurdles, then we can talk," he stated.

Looking further ahead has pointed to the $0.143–$0.127 zone as a critical juncture for DOGE. In a June 2025 update, he observed that since the weekly RSI broke out in 2022, Dogecoin has consistently rebounded after dipping below 40 on the weekly RSI, a pattern he identified as happening five times. "A breakdown of this weekly RSI level, coupled with a failure to hold the .143-.127 range, would mark the dividing line between a prolonged bearish trend or a resumption of the bull market," he cautioned.

#DOGE $DOGE