#Bitcoin is ending the year in consolidation rather than a breakout phase. Price continues to struggle below key resistance, with market structure and thinning liquidity limiting upside momentum. Analysts favor range-based strategies, with strong resistance around $94K–$95K and demand holding near $85K–$86K.

Probability data reflects the caution, with only a ~7% chance of $BTC reaching $100K before year-end. Q4 performance has also broken historical trends, marking one of Bitcoin’s weakest fourth quarters since 2018. While the broader structure remains intact, the data suggests a $100K move is more likely in early 2026 than before year-end.