The US unemployment rate is likely heading higher:

US heavy truck sales are down to 5.1 million over the last 12 months, the lowest since 2020.

Outside the pandemic, this is the lowest level in 8 years.

Annual truck sales have declined by ~1.1 million over the last 18 months.

In previous economic cycles, this has been a leading indicator of higher unemployment.

This suggests that the unemployment rate may rise by at least 1.0 percentage point over the next 6 months.

Downside pressure on the labor market is building.