$XPL is showing a fragile rebound, gaining 4.2% in the last 24 hours to trade at $0.1277, yet remains down over 40% for the month and hovers near its all-time low of $0.1153. Recent capital flows indicate mixed activity, with a $5.18M net inflow followed by net outflows, reflecting profit-taking and renewed selling pressure. Technical indicators, including MACD and Bollinger Bands, point to bearish momentum, while smart money is turning cautious—long whale positions dropped by 20.7% and short whale positions rose by the same amount, creating a potential squeeze risk from underwater longs.

Adding to the pressure, a significant unlock of 88.89 million $XPL tokens is set for December 25, raising concerns of further selling. Despite recent trading campaigns like the Spot Altcoin Trading Festival, which boosted engagement with a 4,270,000 XPL prize pool, market sentiment remains mixed. In the short term, traders should watch for volatility around support at $0.124, while mid-term rallies may be limited by bearish sentiment and resistance near $0.160. Long-term prospects hinge on adoption of XPL’s stablecoin infrastructure, with accumulation opportunities possible if price stabilizes post-unlock, though risks remain elevated.

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