The move to 97,924 can be interpreted in few different but structurally valid ways. Here are both scenarios phrased clearly and cleanly:
๐น Scenario 1 โ It was Wave B of a larger A-B-C correction
If we count 126,200 โ 80,600 as Wave A,
then the rally to 97,924 is a shallow Wave B (โ38.2% retracement).
Because B did not reach the 50โ61.8% zone, this suggests a weak B wave, which typically leads to a strong Wave C down.
Implication: Wave C would likely extend to at least equality with Wave A.
Wave A length = 45,600
Projected C target = 97,924 โ 45,600 = 52,324
โก This scenario expects a much deeper decline toward the 52K area
โก Structure = AโBโC correction (bearish larger degree)
๐น Scenario 2 โ It was nested correction aka wave B inside of Wave IV from that unfinish correction???
If we instead count the structure as a 5-wave impulse from 126,200, then:
Wave I = 126,200 โ 102,000
Wave II = 102,000 โ 116,400
Wave III = 116,400 โ 80,600 (extended)
Wave IV = 80,600 โ 97,924
In this case, the move to 97,924 is a complex Wave IV correction.
โ Wave IV retraced ~50% of Wave III (not Typical but i guess sometimes ITS happen as this is wild market with some exceptions???)
Wave III range = 116,400 โ 80,600 = 35,800
50% retracement = 80,600 + 17,900 = 98,500 area
Price topped at 97,924, which is very close to the 50% retracement zone
โ Wave IV often:
Moves sideways and overlaps internally
Contains smaller A-B-C swings inside it
Takes longer in time
Looks like multiple โB wavesโ during its development
All of those match the current behavior.
Implication: The market is now in Wave V down, which is typically weaker after an extended Wave III.
Projected Wave V targets:
Weak V (0.618 ร Wave I) โ โ 82.9โ83K
Normal V (equal to Wave I) โ โ 73.7K
โก This scenario expects one more drop, but not as deep as 52K
โก Structure = 1-2-3-4-5 impulse completing a correction
What Happens If Price Stops at 83K?
If price declines and finds strong support near 83K:
โ That fits a weak Wave V
โ That completes a full 5-wave impulse down from 126,200
โ That means the entire larger correction is finished
After a completed 5-wave structure, market typically begins a larger degree reversal or new bullish cycle
Otherwise, we will lead into 73K
If price fails to hold 83K and continues lower:
Wave I length = 24,200
97,924 โ 24,200 = 73,724
โ This would still be a valid Wave V completion
โ Structure remains a 5-wave impulse, just with a deeper final leg
So a move to 73K does NOT automatically mean Wave C to 52K
It can still be the final Wave V flush before reversal
So we will see which one is the true one.