Aktualności

A recent survey conducted by Reuters indicates that 37 out of 70 economists expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise interest rates at least twice in 2026. According to Jin10, this marks an increase from a previous survey in April, where 34 out of 85 economists anticipated similar rate hikes.

On May 13, Mitsubishi UFJ analysts reported that the British pound might face renewed downward pressure due to uncertainties surrounding potential leadership challenges to UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. According to Jin10, analysts highlighted that this political turmoil is particularly untimely as Middle Eastern conflicts elevate global inflation risks. They suggest that with ongoing and possibly intensifying political uncertainty, the pound may enter a new cycle of weak performance. The bank noted that if Starmer is ousted and a new leader implements more left-leaning policies, the euro-to-pound exchange rate could rise above 0.90.

Former Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda stated that if the conflict in Iran continues, the Bank of Japan may be compelled to accelerate policy normalization and even tighten monetary policy to address inflation. According to Jin10, Kuroda emphasized the potential economic impacts of prolonged geopolitical tensions, suggesting that Japan's central bank might need to adjust its strategies to mitigate inflationary pressures.

Jupiter Asset Management has increased its holdings in European government bonds. According to Jin10, the firm believes that market expectations regarding the European Central Bank's interest rate hikes are overly aggressive.

The Eurozone's first-quarter GDP growth rate has been revised to 0.1%, according to Jin10. The initial estimate was 0.10%, and the previous value was adjusted from 0.10% to 0.2%.

The Eurozone's seasonally adjusted employment figures for the first quarter showed a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, according to Jin10. This result aligns with market expectations of 0.5% and follows a previous growth rate of 0.70%.

The Eurozone's industrial production for March increased by 0.2%, according to Jin10. This figure fell short of the anticipated 0.3% growth. The previous month's data was revised down from an initial 0.40% to 0.2%.

The Eurozone is set to release key economic data shortly, including the March industrial production month-on-month rate, the revised annual GDP growth rate for the first quarter, and the preliminary quarterly employment figures. According to Jin10, these figures are expected to provide insights into the region's economic performance and labor market conditions.

Turkey's foreign reserves experienced a record monthly decline in March, driven by the Iran war, which has led to global selloffs in emerging market assets and put pressure on the lira. Bloomberg posted on X, highlighting the significant impact of the conflict on Turkey's financial stability. The geopolitical tensions have exacerbated existing economic challenges, causing investors to retreat from riskier markets. This development underscores the vulnerability of emerging economies to international conflicts and their potential ripple effects on global financial markets.

Nomura Securities analysts have indicated that following the recent increase in tariffs on gold and silver, the Indian government is likely to take additional steps to reduce precious metal imports. According to Jin10, this tariff hike aligns with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's previous call for citizens to conserve foreign exchange and avoid purchasing gold and jewelry. Given India's current balance of payments deficit exceeding $70 billion, Nomura Securities believes the tariff increase aims to reduce precious metal imports and narrow the current account deficit. Nomura estimates that imports of precious metals, including platinum, have surged significantly, now accounting for 2.7% of India's GDP. Prime Minister Modi's appeal suggests that the government is unwilling to tolerate further deterioration of the 'twin deficit' situation at the policy level. Potential upcoming measures by the Indian government may include policy tools to curb imports of non-essential items like electronics, issuing 'diaspora bonds' to raise foreign exchange deposits, or increasing fuel prices to alleviate fiscal pressure.

Vietnam's Deputy Minister of Finance announced that the country is considering the official launch of its crypto asset market in the third quarter of 2026. According to NS3.AI, this move is part of Vietnam's broader strategy to integrate digital assets into its financial system. The initiative aims to provide a regulated environment for cryptocurrency trading and investment, aligning with global trends in digital finance. The government is expected to outline specific regulations and guidelines to ensure market stability and investor protection.

Cathie Wood announced on the X platform that ARK Invest has participated in Kalshi's latest funding round. According to Odaily, Wood believes that prediction markets are becoming a new layer of financial infrastructure, enabling real-time price discovery around events, probabilities, and the evolving state of the world. Kalshi is at the forefront of this innovation, and ARK supports the team's efforts to expand the boundaries of information aggregation and expression through markets.

Gold prices rebounded this week after experiencing a pullback, driven by renewed buying interest. According to Jin10, stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation data and stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations have cast a shadow over market prospects. Mitsubishi UFJ analyst Soojin Kim noted that the market has already priced in a more than 40% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike by the end of the year, which has increased U.S. Treasury yields and pressured gold. She added that despite the pressure from potential rate hikes and high inflation triggered by soaring energy prices, gold prices have shown relative resilience due to strong demand from central banks.

Sweden's Deputy Governor of the Central Bank, Bunge, stated that the Swedish economy is beginning from a favorable position. According to Jin10, Bunge highlighted that inflation is low and there is ample idle capacity within the economy.

The Swedish Central Bank has released a statement from its recent meeting minutes, highlighting the significant uncertainty posed by the ongoing war and its potential impact on the economy. According to Jin10, the bank indicated that monetary policy might need to be adjusted to ensure future inflation targets are met. The statement underscores the challenges faced by central banks in navigating economic stability amid geopolitical tensions.

Japan's international balance of payments data released on Wednesday revealed that Japanese investors sold a net total of 4.67 trillion yen, equivalent to $29.6 billion, in U.S. Treasury, agency, and municipal bonds in the three months ending March 31. According to Odaily, this marks the highest level since the second quarter of 2022. In February, the overnight index swap market indicated that traders initially expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice this year. However, following tensions between the U.S. and Israel impacting the situation in Iran, crude oil prices surged by approximately 50%, leading to increased inflation expectations and a shift in rate pricing towards a Federal Reserve rate hike.

Swedish Central Bank Deputy Governor Bongie stated that the overall assessment indicates that the observed effects of the war so far are likely to lead to higher inflation than previously anticipated. According to Jin10, this assessment reflects the ongoing economic challenges posed by the conflict, which may have significant implications for monetary policy and economic stability.

Swedish Central Bank Governor Teden stated that a potential outcome could be an economic slowdown coupled with rising inflation. According to Jin10, Teden noted that it is currently challenging to quantify these effects.

Morgan Stanley has increased its Q2 2027 targets for four major Chinese stock indexes, setting the Hang Seng Index at 28,400 and the CSI 300 Index at 5,400. According to NS3.AI, Laura Wang and her team anticipate a moderate rally in the Chinese market by the second quarter of 2027. This optimism is attributed to improved corporate earnings, stronger upstream supply chain positioning, and a more robust Renminbi. Morgan Stanley expresses a preference for A-shares over offshore markets and emphasizes thematic stock picking, while cautioning that short-term volatility may continue.

UBS Global Wealth Management has adjusted its forecast for the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. According to Jin10, the firm now expects the Fed to reduce rates by 25 basis points in December 2026 and March 2027. This revision comes after an earlier prediction that rate cuts would occur in September and December of this year.