#ТорговаяВойна #trade #tarrifs 
❌🇺🇸 The U.S. Supreme Court declared Donald Trump's trade tariffs illegal!
➤ The court ruled that Donald Trump overstepped his authority by invoking the emergency powers law to impose global tariffs.
➤ It concerns both 'reciprocal' and targeted import tariffs.
➤ The U.S. presidential administration justified part of the tariffs as a fight against fentanyl trafficking.
➤ The decision effectively allows for the return of over $150b in already collected duties — a serious risk for the U.S. budget.
➤ Hundreds of lawsuits remain in courts demanding the return of paid tariffs.
➤ The return process will likely be chaotic.
➤ The question of who will receive compensation has not yet been considered by the Supreme Court.
Market reaction forecast on the U.S. Supreme Court's decision regarding Trump's tariffs by JPMorgan:
▫️Probability 64%: Tariffs canceled and immediately replaced with similar ones → S&P 500 will initially rise by 0.75-1%, but then retreat to +0.1-0.2%.
▫️Probability 26%: Tariffs remain in effect → S&P 500 will decline by -0.3-0.5%.
▫️Probability 9%: Tariffs will be canceled after the midterm elections in November → S&P 500 will rise by +1.25-1.5%, Russell 2000 will perform better.
▫️Probability 1%: Tariffs canceled without replacement → S&P 500 will rise by +1.5-2%, Russell 2000 will perform better.
By January, the U.S. has collected $124b in customs duties. Even if canceled, effective rates may remain at the 2025 level, limiting market growth. The Supreme Court's decision is expected today.