Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D)
BTC.D reflects the market capitalization of Bitcoin's share in the overall cryptocurrency market, serving as the "primary indicator" for assessing the rotation of funds between Bitcoin and altcoins. The cyclical fluctuations of BTC.D show a significant negative correlation with altcoin seasons; when this indicator exhibits a sustained downward trend, it usually signals that funds are shifting from Bitcoin to altcoins.
Historical data shows a clear threshold effect for BTC.D:
● In 2017, during the altcoin season: BTC.D dropped from 86% to 33%, a decline of over 50 percentage points, leading to a highly decentralized market structure where funds generally flowed into altcoins, displaying a "universal rise" characteristic.
● In 2021: BTC.D fell from 69% to 40%, a decline of nearly 30 percentage points.
● In 2025 (as of September), BTC.D slowly decreased from 64% to 57%, a decline of about 7 percentage points. Although it was not as severe as the previous two rounds, this marked the first significant drop exceeding 7 percentage points since 2022.
🔷 When Bitcoin's price stabilizes and BTC.D continues to decline (i.e., the "Bitcoin consolidation + declining dominance" scenario), it serves as a strong signal for the onset of an altcoin season. This indicates that funds are flowing into altcoins without selling Bitcoin, reflecting an increase in market risk appetite. From August to September 2025, Bitcoin's price remained in the range of $110,000 to $120,000, while BTC.D fell by 7 percentage points, aligning with the typical technical patterns seen in historical altcoin season initiations.
#山寨季将至？
BTC.D reflects the market capitalization of Bitcoin's share in the overall cryptocurrency market, serving as the "primary indicator" for assessing the rotation of funds between Bitcoin and altcoins. The cyclical fluctuations of BTC.D show a significant negative correlation with altcoin seasons; when this indicator exhibits a sustained downward trend, it usually signals that funds are shifting from Bitcoin to altcoins.
Historical data shows a clear threshold effect for BTC.D:
● In 2017, during the altcoin season: BTC.D dropped from 86% to 33%, a decline of over 50 percentage points, leading to a highly decentralized market structure where funds generally flowed into altcoins, displaying a "universal rise" characteristic.
● In 2021: BTC.D fell from 69% to 40%, a decline of nearly 30 percentage points.
● In 2025 (as of September), BTC.D slowly decreased from 64% to 57%, a decline of about 7 percentage points. Although it was not as severe as the previous two rounds, this marked the first significant drop exceeding 7 percentage points since 2022.
🔷 When Bitcoin's price stabilizes and BTC.D continues to decline (i.e., the "Bitcoin consolidation + declining dominance" scenario), it serves as a strong signal for the onset of an altcoin season. This indicates that funds are flowing into altcoins without selling Bitcoin, reflecting an increase in market risk appetite. From August to September 2025, Bitcoin's price remained in the range of $110,000 to $120,000, while BTC.D fell by 7 percentage points, aligning with the typical technical patterns seen in historical altcoin season initiations.
#山寨季将至？