Have you ever had that feeling: after a liquidation, you actually become clearer, as clear as an enlightened monk?
Last night I was.
Lying in bed, staring at the ceiling, replaying that trade that sent me away. The more I think about it, the clearer it becomes — it wasn't the market that killed me, it was my own actions.
Emotions running high, leverage maxed out, mainstream coins played like altcoins. It blew up, deservedly so.
But people, after all, have to crawl out from the ruins. I still have one thousand U left in hand, not much, but enough capital for me to turn things around. I've figured it out: since the long position sent me away, I will go to the short position to pick my life back.
Now the question arises - I have my eye on two targets: $BARD and $SIREN. Which one to short? Brothers and sisters, give me some advice; this time I will definitely hold until it goes to zero, absolutely no stopping halfway!
Let me first explain why I’m focused on these two.
I've been sitting on-chain for a long time these past few days and found that these two have a common point: position volume is ridiculously high, but the fundamentals are as empty as air.
Let’s look at BARD first.
The data from early this morning shows that this thing has risen 52.5% in 24 hours, now quoting at $1.66. Sounds impressive, right? But then look at another set of data: the funding rate has dropped to -1.14%.
What does it mean? It means that the cost of short positions is terrifyingly high, with a bunch of people stubbornly holding shorts despite the fees. The position volume has surged 68% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of $900 million. This isn't normal trading; this is both sides stabbing each other with knives, blood flowing like a river.
What’s even scarier is that on-chain data shows that wallets related to the project have transferred 1.85 million BARD to the exchange, and now the exchange balance has reached a historical high of 93 million. The price is rising, but the money is flowing out. What do you call this? It’s called pumping while dumping.
What about SIREN?
The data I found is a bit sparse, but there’s an interesting detail - a few days ago, some KOL said that $POWER, $BULLA, and $SIREN are all following the same script: pull up the price themselves, open shorts themselves, and then slam it down, making profits on both sides.
You can savor this operation.
Now the question is: which one to short?
Let me analyze the situation on both sides:
Reasons for shorting BARD:
It has risen too much; a daily increase of 52% must correct, right?
The project party is transferring coins to the exchange, which is a signal to sell.
With such negative fees, it shows that the shorts are about to give in; once the bulls exert force, it might first blow up a wave of shorts before dropping.
But the problem is - it’s still rising now; if you short, you might get blown up first.
Reason for shorting SIREN:
It follows the same script as BARD, but with lower enthusiasm, it might run a bit slower.
Some KOLs have pointed it out, saying it’s a typical ‘self-pull, self-crash’ model.
The problem is that there is too little information; I don’t know what stage it’s at now. What if it just finished pulling and is preparing to crash?
Some say: you only have a thousand USDT left, and you still dare to short? Are you crazy?
What I want to say is: precisely because there is only one thousand USDT left, I must short.
I can’t withstand the fluctuations of a large position; instead, I dare to gamble with a small position. If it blows up, it's just that thousand; I accept it. If I earn, it could be ten or twenty times.
But there is a prerequisite - I must not let emotions dictate my trades.
The biggest lesson from last night's liquidation is that emotions got the best of me. Chasing when it goes up and selling when it goes down, completely illogical. This time is different; I researched for two days, looked at on-chain data, checked the fees, and observed the project's movements before daring to ask this question.
So brothers and sisters, give some advice.
Should I short BARD, betting it will run out and then flee? Or short SIREN, betting it will follow the script?
Tell me in the comments; I’ll take the advice.
Finally, let me say something heartfelt.
I know some people will laugh at me: even after liquidation, still not stopping, still wanting to short, that's a gambler.
But let me ask you this: in this market, who isn’t a gambler?
It’s just that some people bet on fundamentals, some on news, and some on technicals. What I bet on is human nature - human nature has always been about chasing highs and cutting losses, but when it rises too much, it must fall, and when it falls too much, it must rise.
This time I bet on a decline.
It’s not about being stubborn; it’s about betting on logic.
Wait for my good news, or wait for my liquidation screenshot. Whichever it is, I will come back to tell you.
I am Old K, still alive in this market. The last thousand USDT of today is ready to go into the game.