what happened?

The failure of US-Iran negotiations and Trump's order to close the Strait of Hormuz caused a short-term plunge in Bitcoin, breaking below $71,000 and hitting a low of $70,655, a 3% drop in 24 hours. Escalating geopolitical risks increased market risk aversion.

Market sentiment

Total open interest across the entire network decreased by 5.25% in the past 24 hours, with liquidations amounting to $266 million, primarily long positions. The fear of greed index declined, social media activity increased, institutional ETF inflows remained strong, and the Coinbase premium has been positive for five consecutive days, indicating resilient institutional buying, but short-term sentiment leans towards panic.

Fund Flow

Whales' short positions have yielded floating profits of over $3.2 million, mining companies are reducing their holdings, some countries are selling off BTC, and there is a significant outflow of short-term funds.

Potential impact

If geopolitical risks persist, BTC will face short-term pressure and increased volatility; however, a rebound is possible if the situation eases.

Trading Guide

BTC's trend is bullish, supported by ETF inflows and the CB premium. If it breaks above 76k, it may fill the 73-81k thin supply zone. Watch the 81-82k resistance. If it falls below 69.3k, it will weaken in the short term and is suitable for swing trading.

On-chain data analyst Mr. Berg believes that the main theme for BTC this week is upward. If it continues to break through 76k, pay attention to the 81-82k resistance zone. 69.3k is the short-term watershed, and 60-65k is the lower liquidity zone. The main strategy is swing trading.Crypto KOL Johnny stated: "ETF inflows are strong, CB premium is significant, the weekend decline may be a bear trap, and prices are expected to rebound within 48 hours."Trader Rekt Fencer stated: "The downward trend of the BTC weekly RSI has been broken for the first time, which is usually a signal of the end of a bear market."

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