What is actually scheduled for this week is a memorandum of understanding in Geneva, not a treaty. A memorandum sets lines of possible cooperation. It carries no binding obligation. After signing, both parties get 60 days to reach actual agreements, extendable if either side finds it politically convenient.

That is a lot of room for things to go differently than the market currently expects.

Oil futures curves have already shifted lower since May 15, pricing Brent around the 75 to 70 zone for coming months. Open long positions in oil futures have dropped significantly since the war began, approaching pre war levels.

The chart is telling you the market sentiment shifted toward optimism well before any signature exists.

When speculation prices in the best possible scenario before the paperwork is even signed, that gap between expectation and reality is exactly where risk hides.

Are you trading the headline or the chart? $BTC $BNB