The 2025 BIS data reveals key shifts shaping 2026 FX markets: emerging market currencies like the Chinese renminbi are growing at double the pace of developed ones, while overall volatility has cooled from its 2025 peak. Despite lower volatility, demand for hedging remains strong. The market is also seeing a surge in options trading and a notable shift from swaps to spot and futures transactions. A major trend is the industry's move toward greater transparency and data consolidation, led by new tools like CME Group's FX Tape+.
Major Points :
Volatility Has Eased, But Hedging Demand Remains High
Record FX volumes in April 2025 were driven by U.S. tariff news, but volatility has since declined.
Despite lower volatility, hedging activity hit new records—asset manager FX hedging positions grew ~32% in 2025.
Emerging Market Currencies Are Growing Rapidly
EM currency activity grew more than twice as fast as developed market currencies from 2022–2025.
Chinese renminbi (CNH) turnover rose 56% in three years, and Brazilian real futures volume on CME surged 109%.
Options Trading Is Surging
FX options more than doubled in three years—the fastest-growing instrument in the survey.
Retail trading in Asian currency options jumped nearly 600%.
New CME options on CNH and INR are planned for 2026.
Trading Preferences Are Shifting: Swaps Decline, Spot & Futures Gain
FX swaps fell 14% for EUR/USD, while spot and forwards rose.
FX futures volumes grew 52%, and CME’s FX Link (futures + spot) saw record activity.
Transparency & Data Are Increasing in Importance
Voice trading remains significant, but platforms like EBS Market and new services like CME’s FX Tape+ are improving market transparency.
Electronic venues regained market share, offering consolidated, credit-neutral liquidity.
