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hi

$BTC
Latest Short-Term Analysis
Current situation:
Bitcoin is trading in the region of ~$105,000 after recently retreating from its October high near $126,000.
The volatility index (BVIV) has broken a trendline of low-volatility for much of 2025, suggesting turbulence ahead.
Critical support zones: ~$100,000 is a major psychological & technical level — a breakdown below this could open deeper correction risks.
What the bulls see:
If support around $98K–$100K holds, there are medium-term targets of $120K–$150K (or even $200K under very bullish conditions) in place.
Some analysts (e.g., from JPMorgan) suggest Bitcoin is undervalued relative to gold on a volatility-adjusted basis, implying significant upside potential.
What the bears worry about:
If BTC loses the ~$100K support, technical models point to a possible decline toward $74K (≈-30%) or lower.
The formation of a “death cross” (50-day EMA crossing below 200-day EMA) is flagged by some as a warning of a larger pullback.
My view (short-term):
Bitcoin is at a pivotal juncture. The next few sessions/weeks matter:
A sustained hold above ~$100K could reinvigorate the bullish case.
But if the price breaks down, we may see sharper correction and heightened volatility.
Given the rising volatility index and mixed signals, the risk-reward is balanced but skewing toward caution for now.

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