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Every time the US has announced a temporary pause in a war, something much bigger followed.
🚨 The 2-week Iran ceasefire is no different.
This is not the first time the US has paused a conflict and called it progress. The pattern of what happens next is consistent across every major US war in the last 50 years.
IN JANUARY 1973, the US signed the Paris Peace Accords with Vietnam and declared peace with honor.
Nixon had secretly promised to resume bombing if North Vietnam violated the agreement. Congress blocked it and Within months of the ceasefire being signed, full-scale war had resumed. By 1975 North Vietnamese tanks were rolling through Saigon.
The ceasefire did not end the war. It ended US involvement and left the underlying conflict completely unresolved.
IN 1991, the US declared a ceasefire after 100 hours of ground combat in Iraq and told the world Kuwait was liberated. Saddam Hussein remained in power and The US immediately established no-fly zones enforced by military patrols for the next 12 years.
The US bombed Iraq again in 1993, 1996, and 1998. In 2003, a full invasion followed that toppled the government. The 1991 ceasefire was not the end of the conflict. It was a pause before the next phase.
In Afghanistan, the US signed a peace deal with the Taliban in February 2020. The Taliban resumed attacks against Afghan forces three days after signing. The US completed its withdrawal in 2021. The Taliban took over in 11 days.
Now look at what is actually happening during this ceasefire right now.
Iran's official statement accepting the deal explicitly said "this does not signify the termination of the war. Our hands remain upon the trigger." Israel stated the ceasefire does not include Lebanon and is stepping up operations there.
Israel and UAE both activated missile alerts within hours of the ceasefire being announced. Iran continued firing at Gulf states after the deal was declared.
The core issues that started this war are still completely unresolved. Iran wants a permanent guarantee the US and Israel will not attack again.
The US has not agreed. Iran wants full sanctions relief. The US has not agreed to that. Iran wants formal sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. The US has not agreed to that as well.
These two weeks are a negotiating window, not a resolution.
The markets are pricing in peace. History says something much bigger is coming.
#US&IranAgreedToATwo-weekCeasefire #MarketRebound