回本慢慢路

Today is June 29. Early in the session, the South Korean stock market (KOSPI) immediately triggered a circuit breaker! There are all these so-called pseudo-analysts out there still talking nonsense about geopolitics—it’s a joke. Read the key news: this is already South Korea’s fifth circuit breaker in the current month. In essence, it’s a global financial stampede caused by the bursting of the global AI and semiconductor chip bubble and a chain liquidation of highly leveraged funds.

Two giants—Samsung and SK Hynix—account for nearly half of South Korea’s stock market value. Now, global doubts about big tech and AI monetization are intensifying sharply. Foreign capital is fleeing at full speed, high-leverage margin funding is being ruthlessly liquidated, and it directly crashes the Korean market.

What does South Korea’s circuit breaker mean for the crypto market?
This is the “ultimate liquidity drought” signal I’ve been waiting for! The latest data shows that BTC $BTC officially fell below the $60,000 “iron bottom” it had defended for two years a few days ago. Today it’s still hovering around $59,000.

The head of BlackRock also admits: this year the AI theme has been sucking in too much money—draining the off-market incremental liquidity that originally belonged to crypto and gold. In crypto, there’s no new capital to take the baton; it’s basically contract longs propping things up on life support. Now even the “kimchi premium” has been smashed into negative territory, which means even South Korea’s local old bag-holders are selling to cut losses—so where would the spare money come from to take over the position? Currently in prediction markets like Kalshi, veteran traders are crazily betting on BTC falling toward $58,000 or even lower. Derivatives market makers, to hedge, are accelerating the dumping of spot holdings—systemic risk is being transmitted.

Returning to my live-trading stance: the script has fully lined up.
A few days ago I got liquidated on both sides. After reflecting on it, I told myself I must respect the system and learn to wait. Now that BTC has broken below $60,000, and BTC $ETH on the daily and weekly charts has already formed a bearish alignment, it has clearly entered the “accelerated sell-off” posture.

Don’t see even any minor intraday rebound and think, “Bull is back fast—time to bottom-fish.” In the kind of global asset-linked downpour where everything is getting hammered, any small bounce is a trap to lure you into a timed explosion.

The big picture is dead-set bearish—don’t question it. After BTC breaks $60,000 support, the bulls’ lifeline is cut; in the larger timeframe, we should honestly look at $22,000. As for ETH, if it doesn’t go above 1622, the ultimate target of $1,400 is right ahead.

If you’re losing money, it’s fine—I don’t fear that. What I fear most is losing money and still stubbornly fighting the trend. The broader market has entered the night before black swan events. Control your hands—strictly follow the system levels, and set proper stop-losses with discipline. If you understand, hit like—we’ll see the $1,400 ultimate target!

$CHZ I really admire you guys for still holding on to this garbage. The dog dealer clearly doesn't want to push the price up.

Today is June 27th, Saturday—time is up, and those Wall Street folks finally clock out. The chart has also entered “garbage time” oscillation.
The “two-biscuit” $ETH is currently trading around 1570. My earlier strategy was explained very clearly: as long as it can’t break through the 1622 level, the overall downside risk remains extremely high. Recently, in my live trading, my mindset warped and I kept chasing orders back-to-back, and I ended up losing. For the garbage-time period ahead, I’m not going to open positions blindly. I must honestly go into deep cultivation, return to the system, and only then restart. I hope I can, like Brother Wa, walk the path that belongs to me in this market.
On the macro side, the big changes really are here! Last night, the Americans attacked the Iran missile/drone bases in Iraq/Syria, directly launching a fierce retaliatory airstrike. With geopolitical turmoil like this, the “ice-breaking agreement” people were talking up just a few days ago is immediately turned into scrap paper. Everyone, buckle up. The truly massive, super-black-swan event may already be on its way.
Let’s also talk about the “big biscuit.” Right now, on the plaza many people are shouting that this wave will drop to 30k, 40k—but in my view, the more the market’s opinion is highly unanimous, the less likely the market makers will let you easily make that money. Just like $CHZ before: retail traders thought it was the bottom, and then they all got buried. Personally, I believe the upper limit of the big-cycle move for the big biscuit this time is only around 22k.
Back to Ethereum: on the technical side, whether you look at daily or weekly levels, the bearish trend for the big drop hasn’t finished playing out yet. There will absolutely be another deep-downward move afterward. Since it can’t get up to 1622 for now, we’ll first dead-stare at the big target of 1400.
Also, I glanced at the chart—$AAVE has actually been performing pretty well lately. It looks like in these past couple days of big selloff, there really were lots of people liquidated and wiped out. The liquidation mechanism literally pulled up tokens from these lending-style protocols. Looking at all the “big brothers” still holding positions on the plaza, posting little essays every day saying “it’s fine”—that’s really impressive. It feels like I’m seeing the stubborn version of myself from before. Let me advise all the big brothers holding positions: don’t keep holding. What if this black swan really smashes the two-biscuit down to $500? Only if your margin allows you to keep adding along the way to below 300—that’s what you can truly call “absolutely safe.” Otherwise, in this stock-and-drain market, the only outcome of stubbornly fighting the trend is that you’re just handing liquidity to the market makers.

Today is June 25th. Last night's market really came as expected, wasn't it thrilling? 二饼 $ETH rode the bearish trend all the way down, smashing straight to the icy low of $1551! Although it was forcibly pulled back a bit by the volume-less rebound from the US stocks at the end, don’t be fooled by this smoke and mirrors.
My stance is clear: the overall direction is definitely still bearish, this rebound is just a chance for the shorts to reload. I'm directly eyeing $1400!
On a macro level, those old foxes in the US and UK are constantly talking about "interest rate hikes", being quite stubborn. If it weren't for the blonde guy shouting "must cut rates" yesterday, the market last night probably wouldn't have even stopped at $1551, it would have been slapped straight into the abyss. But against the backdrop of global liquidity being tightly squeezed, a few words from politicians can't save the day. Buckle up, everyone, and patiently await the real, devastating black swan ahead.
Additionally, I've seen a lot of brothers chatting in the square about US stocks: seeing the chip and storage sectors skyrocketing like crazy, it's tempting to short at these highs.
Take my advice: don't go hard-headed shorting during the main uptrend of tech stocks in the US! Right now, smart money and safe-haven funds are mindlessly flocking into hard tech sectors like chips and AI infrastructure (for example, SpaceX just issued a massive bond to lay out AI). They're keeping US stocks propped up high, which naturally sucks liquidity out of the crypto space. This perfectly explains why positive news in crypto causes a sell-off.
If you want to short, crypto's Ethereum and altcoins are natural amplifiers for shorting, no need to catch knives in US tech stocks. During this trash time, focus your attention on the most certain paths. Stick to the big target of $1400, manage your stop loss, and follow the strategy closely; we'll meet at the peak!

Today is June 24. The market has been moving exactly as I expected these past couple of days. Early this morning, after sweeping the plaza, those bloggers who keep shouting "the bull is back, time to buy the dip" have finally gone quiet.
BTC $ETH held strong at 1680 multiple times, but ultimately couldn't hold on! In my system, once support is broken, it turns into a new resistance zone. The dead cat bounce many were hoping for can be postponed for now. Currently, the bears are firmly in control on the daily chart, and there's no sign of a reversal in sight.
Next, everyone is glued to the 1650 level for a battle. If 1650 gets smashed, there's no doubt we'll head straight down to the 1600 round number! Many retail traders love to guess the bottom blindly during a downtrend; any bounce before the trend completely shifts is just a trap set by the whales to entrap you. The market always rewards those who short with the trend, not those who stubbornly try to catch the bottom! At this stage, I'm only focusing on the resistance levels above for my strategy, absolutely not blindly optimistic.
Now, looking at BTC $BTC 's early market situation, it hit 61870 yesterday, bounced back to around the current price of 62800. Don't let the nearly thousand point rise fool you; the volume behind this bounce has been shrinking, purely a case of bears taking profits and covering shorts, with no new money coming in from the sidelines! BTC is just a classic example of a weak defense.
My real trading strategy today is straightforward (mainly focusing on shorts, not playing games with the whales):
* BTC $BTC : The resistance is right around 63300-63500 (this is a dense area of trapped positions). The strategy is to short in batches as it bounces to 63200-63500, with a stop-loss firmly above 64500, targeting 61800 below, and if it breaks, aiming straight for the ultimate goal of 60000.
* ETH $ETH : The 1680 level has already become the first major hurdle, and above that, 1720 is also a strong sell pressure zone. My strategy is to watch for a bounce around 1680, then lightly short it if it hits resistance, with a stop-loss set above 1733, targeting directly at 1630-1600, or even hitting 1510 in the second half of the year.
When the opportunity isn't ripe, brothers, observe more and act less. My system only takes on certainty, no gambling beyond its limits. Strictly manage your stop-losses, follow the signals, and see you at 1600!
#纳斯达克跌2.2%

Today is June 22nd, noon. I just scanned the latest macroeconomic news, and everyone's hyping about "the US and Iran signing a peace agreement, the Strait of Hormuz reopening, and oil prices plummeting" as a major bullish signal. The Asian markets are opening strong today.

But take a look at 二饼 $ETH , what’s going on this morning? Riding that news, it pumped up to 1757 with no volume, and now? It’s back down to 1736, just like that. What do we call this? This is classic macro good news being used as toilet paper, with the market makers using it to lure in longs with a quick spike.

In the crypto space, there’s basically no new capital flowing in. Over in South Korea, AI chip exports skyrocketed by 180%, and money is flocking to real hard tech and US stocks. The little liquidity left in crypto is just enough for the market makers to pull these boring stunts of "pump in the morning, dump at noon."

The current stance is simple: don’t rush to chase after a morning pump if it hasn’t solidified at key levels. These kinds of bounces are all traps, and the overall vibe is still bearish. If you’ve got positions, hold onto your key support levels tight. Don’t let volatile times wipe out your capital. #美伊首轮谈判取得积极进展

$ETH 6/21st at 19:30
Trading Notes | Self-Reflection After Continuous Stop Losses

Today, all my long positions hit stop losses consecutively, getting swept out before a quick bounce back. The market perfectly executed the bullish/bearish structure I was expecting, and in an instant, a huge gap of uncertainty washed over me, filled with helplessness and self-doubt.
Staring blankly at the charts, I kept questioning: Does sticking to this contract trading path really yield results in the long run?

Reflecting on a few insights to share with fellow traders on this journey:

1. Stop loss triggers ≠ invalid judgment. The crypto market's liquidity is complex; short-term spikes, fund dumps, and wash trading are the norms. Temporary breaches of support and resistance don't indicate a trend reversal; they are just funds intentionally cleaning out retail positions.

2. Losses within the rules are not shameful. All my stop losses today were planned in advance before entering the trades, without emotional holding or arbitrarily increasing stop loss limits. This is the risk management a competent trader should uphold; manageable losses are the cost of seizing market opportunities.

3. The scariest thing isn't continuous losses; it's revenge trading after a loss. An imbalanced mindset can lead to blind over-leveraging and frequent reversals, which only amplify drawdowns and trap you in a vicious cycle of increasing chaos. The best choice after a series of stop losses is to take a break, observe, calm your emotions, and then review the trades.

4. Trading is about long-term probability, not single wins or losses. No one can avoid all wash trading; as long as the risk-reward ratio remains stable and the system is positive, the short-term lows will eventually pass. Those who can accept imperfection and withstand the psychological grind will be the ones who stay in the market long-term.

The market won't disappear, and opportunities are always present. After a brief setback, adjust your entry zones, optimize your stop loss distances, hold your hands steady, and patiently await the next high-value signal. The path is tough, but if you can maintain discipline, there will definitely be a way out.
#日本企业年金拟配1%加密资产

I often remind myself, once I enter a position, don't check the price, if I take a loss, don't regret, if I win, don't second-guess, and if I lose, don't dwell on it. Everything is about owning my choices, regardless of the outcome, it's all part of my trading journey. $ETH #比特币ETF周流出降87%

【6.20 Night Market Analysis: Pin Bar Doesn’t Break 1711, Rebound is Just a Trap】

Our buddy $ETH pulled a fast one at 10 PM, after some turbulence around 1727, a rapid pin bar emerged. Even though it found support at 1711 triggering a minor rebound, it doesn’t change the bearish structure of the larger timeframe.

Latest Live Trading Strategy:

Core Direction: Not optimistic about any small-scale rebounds, we’re staying bearish and focusing on shorting. The first phase target for the downtrend is still fixated around 1687.

Risk Management: For those entering short positions, adjust your stop-loss to 1721. If the price violently retraces to this level again, it indicates intensified disorder in the smaller timeframe, so hit the stop-loss and exit—never go against the market.

Always remember, we’re after consistent profits, not gambling on those few bucks from chaotic rebounds. Stick to the strategy, and we’ll see 1687!
#美众院拟办数字金融圆桌会议

Take your time, learn the system experience. I'm still bearish on ETH, set your stop loss at 1720.

Quick update, June 19th at 10:00 PM.
$ETH just saw a price retracement. The strategy is straightforward, keep a close eye on the 1718 level.
* Long conditions: If we can break through 1718 with strong volume, then we can consider going long.
* Bearish outlook still: If we can't push past it, then there’s nothing more to say, the overall sentiment remains bearish.
* Shorting opportunity: Sometimes trading is all about waiting for that certainty; if this retracement is just a fake-out and the price drops back down to 1687, go in heavy and short! Stop-loss is easy to manage, just keep it tight at 1718 with the big player.
Once again, I emphasize that overall liquidity is still quite poor, the larger timeframe is bearish, and don’t get too excited about small retracements. Exclude any factors that go beyond your system and are uncertain; otherwise, it's no different than gambling. As for $CHZ and those World Cup concepts, take advantage of this retracement and cash out if you hold any, don’t wait for the whales to dump it down to $20 million and become the bag holder!
#万斯延迟美伊瑞士会谈

June 19th. The liquidity in the market is absolutely terrible right now, and the second coin's rebound is as lifeless as a dead fish. Stop fixating on those few-minute micro timeframes and messing around; the macro outlook is where you’ll find results. If you can't see the trend clearly, it's better to stay hands-off.

Currently, I'm firmly bearish on $ETH for the long haul. Although 1687 looks like strong support at the moment, the rebound is so weak that it’s really not stable. If this bounce can't push past 1736, don’t hesitate—just go short! If it drops below 1687, the next stop is straight to 1622. Just watch, this lackluster sideways action is unlikely to hold through the weekend; we’re definitely going to see some long liquidations coming in.

By the way, what's up with all these people in the square holding onto those so-called World Cup concept tokens? Especially $CHZ ; it’s basically hopeless. If you’re holding, you better run! There's still over two hundred million dollars in market cap, and even if the whales keep dumping, they’d still profit even if they take it down to 20 million. Why do you think you can catch that falling knife? That guy who advised me to hold back then? I still want to give him a piece of my mind.

Let me emphasize my principle once again: trading should be about certainty! Eliminate any risks that exceed your system's limits and are uncertain at the first opportunity. If you can’t manage risk, what’s the difference between you and a gambler at the casino?
#ECB委员称数据走弱将呼吁7月加息 #纳斯达克收涨2%

$CHZ this trash has no reason for holding from the project team, zero vision. They talk about burning tokens, but only 1% of the public chain tokens are getting burned. With this kind of mindset, how can this coin ever pump? Every day, 2,000,000 tokens are unlocked and the whales dump them, making a quick 40-50k bucks. Why would they pump it? A bunch of shills still shouting 'buy the dip', come on guys, let's be real. I've lost a ton on this piece of junk too. I've lost about 8k across three exchanges, #世界杯 . The World Cup ends in a month, and once it's over, it wouldn’t be surprising to see this garbage crash to 20 million bucks. Right now, there's still 200 million in market cap, with a potential drop of 10x. For those still holding, wake up and face reality. Bitcoin and those others aren't going anywhere good these days; we might be in for a black swan event that drags this trash down too.

This coin $CHZ is due for a short on any bounce. The whales have been dumping consistently. I've already taken my loss and exited the position with a hit of #chz #世界杯 CHZ 粉丝币 FanToken 币安广场 加密货币 SportFi Web3体育 .

$CHZ is lit

Let's break down this trash that cost me $8000. Last December, a friend got me to check this out and suggested I buy in at $0.028 with $500. Then it shot up to $0.062, and I thought it was time to scale up, so I put in over $10,000 and even opened a contract. When it dipped below $0.05, I averaged down and ended up buying over $13,000 worth, holding on until May when it dropped below $0.044. I actually asked my friend if I should bail, but he said to hold on, and then it dropped to $0.037, and then to $0.033, and finally back to $0.028. During this time, my trading system kept screaming at me to cut my losses, but I didn't trust myself and listened to him instead. Now this piece of junk has no reason to go up; everyone is trying to catch the bottom and go long. They're releasing 2 million new coins daily, about $50,000 worth. Why would these whales pump it when everyone in the chat is just a bunch of shills claiming it’ll rebound? This trash has zero logic for an upside. Even at this low price, its market cap is still over $200 million. Even if it gets cut in half, it still has $100 million value, but realistically, it should only be worth between $5 million and $10 million. At the current price, it could easily drop another five times. It's just pure garbage; whoever buys it is in for a rough ride. Venting a bit is just to remind myself not to trust others and to stick to my trading system. $CHZ If it can't bounce back above $0.0245, it's going to dip again tonight below the last low of $0.0229. It'll go straight to $0.02, and if it breaks that, we're looking at $0.016 or even $0.014. This thing is just trash.

This time the three exchanges together took a hit of $8000 and I learned a lesson: never trust anyone's words.

$CHZ screw you, this garbage has lost me $8000; across three exchanges, you’re really trash, just die already!