Nesta18

1. Przegląd rynku (17 stycznia 2026)
Bieżąca cena: Około 2,06 USD.
Codzienna wydajność: Cena pozostaje stosunkowo stabilna, wykazując niewielką fluktuację wynoszącą około 0,25% w ciągu ostatnich 24 godzin.
Trend: XRP jest obecnie w fazie konsolidacji, skutecznie utrzymując swoją pozycję powyżej krytycznego psychologicznego poziomu wsparcia wynoszącego 2,00 USD.
2. Kluczowe wiadomości i podstawowe czynniki
Oczekiwanie na ETF: Uczestnicy rynku aktywnie oczekują na ostateczne zatwierdzenie XRP Spot ETF w tym roku. To wydarzenie jest uważane za główny czynnik napędzający długoterminowy wzrost.

The probability of a US government shutdown by January 31 has exploded to nearly 80%.

Just a day ago, it was only around 10%-15%.

And this is a serious liquidity risk for crypto.

Democrats have made it clear they will block the spending bill unless key DHS funding provisions are removed, and Republicans are not backing down, which means a shutdown is now a real possibility.

And here is the dangerous part:
The debt ceiling has already been raised to $41.1 trillion.

That means politicians can afford to fight longer without instantly breaking government operations, which actually increases the chance of a shutdown.

But if that's the case, why would crypto suffer?

When a shutdown starts, the US Treasury usually rebuilds its Treasury General Account (TGA). To do that, it pulls money out of financial markets.

Last time this happened, the TGA increased by about $220 billion. That was a $220B liquidity drain from markets, and crypto cannot handle that.

Last shutdown cycle:
• Markets pumped for a short time
• Liquidity dried up
• Then crypto collapsed
• BTC and ETH dropped 20%-25%
• Altcoins dropped much more

And one of the biggest factors behind this was the liquidity crisis.

This time, the setup is even worse.

• Liquidity is already thin.
• Market confidence is already weak.
• Institutions are mostly in stocks and gold.
• Volatility is already high

Crypto is already swinging violently on small flows.

A shutdown-driven liquidity drain could be devastating and result in an even more brutal dump.

#dollar

The New York Fed has already done rate checks, which is the exact step taken before real currency intervention. That means the U.S. is preparing to sell dollars and buy yen.

This is rare. And historically, when this happens, global markets surge.

Japan is under heavy pressure. The yen has been weak for years, Japanese bond yields are at multi decade highs, and the Bank of Japan is still hawkish. Together, this creates stress not just for Japan, but for global markets. That is why central banks are now taking the situation seriously.

Japan has already tried to defend its currency many times on its own. But it failed in 2022 and 2024. Even the July 2024 intervention only worked for short time.

History is very clear on this: When Japan acts alone, it does not work. When the U.S. and Japan act together, it does.

We saw this in 1998 during the Asian Financial Crisis. Japan’s solo interventions failed, but when the U.S. joined, the yen stabilized. We saw it even more clearly in 1985 with the Plaza Accord, when coordinated action pushed the dollar down nearly 50% over two years.

That changed everything: The dollar weakened. Gold, Commodities, Non US markets all pumped.

If the Fed intervenes, this is how it'll play out :

- The Fed creates dollars, sells them, and uses those dollars to buy yen.
- That weakens the dollar and increases global liquidity.
- And whenever the dollar is intentionally weakened, asset prices usually surge.

Now look at crypto.

Bitcoin has one of the strongest inverse relationships with the dollar and one of the strongest positive relationships with the yen. Right now, BTC yen correlation is near record highs.

But there is a catch.

There is still hundreds of billions of dollars tied into the yen carry trade. People borrow cheap yen and invest in stocks and crypto. When the yen strengthens suddenly, they are forced to sell those assets to repay loans.

We saw this in August 2024: A small BOJ rate hike sent the yen higher. Bitcoin crashed from $64K to $49K in six days. Crypto lost $600B in value.

- So yen strength creates short term risk for crypto.

- But dollar weakness creates long term upside.

Now, why is this bullish for crypto ?

Because Bitcoin is still well below its 2025 peak. It is one of the few major assets that has not fully repriced for currency debasement.

If coordinated intervention actually happens and the dollar weakens, capital will look for assets that are still cheap relative to the macro shift. Historically, crypto benefits strongly from that environment.

This may become one of the most important macro setups of 2026.
#USIranMarketImpact
#TrumpCancelsEUTariffThreat
#Japan

🇺🇸 $USDT
#dolar
The New York Fed has already done rate checks, which is the exact step taken before real currency intervention. That means the U.S. is preparing to sell dollars and buy yen.

This is rare. And historically, when this happens, global markets surge.

Japan is under heavy pressure. The yen has been weak for years, Japanese bond yields are at multi decade highs, and the Bank of Japan is still hawkish. Together, this creates stress not just for Japan, but for global markets. That is why central banks are now taking the situation seriously. #Japan

Japan has already tried to defend its currency many times on its own. But it failed in 2022 and 2024. Even the July 2024 intervention only worked for short time. #usa

History is very clear on this: When Japan acts alone, it does not work. When the U.S. and Japan act together, it does.

We saw this in 1998 during the Asian Financial Crisis. Japan’s solo interventions failed, but when the U.S. joined, the yen stabilized. We saw it even more clearly in 1985 with the Plaza Accord, when coordinated action pushed the dollar down nearly 50% over two years.

That changed everything: The dollar weakened. Gold, Commodities, Non US markets all pumped. #USGovernment

If the Fed intervenes, this is how it'll play out :

- The Fed creates dollars, sells them, and uses those dollars to buy yen.
- That weakens the dollar and increases global liquidity.
- And whenever the dollar is intentionally weakened, asset prices usually surge.

Now look at crypto.

Bitcoin has one of the strongest inverse relationships with the dollar and one of the strongest positive relationships with the yen. Right now, BTC yen correlation is near record highs.

But there is a catch.

There is still hundreds of billions of dollars tied into the yen carry trade. People borrow cheap yen and invest in stocks and crypto. When the yen strengthens suddenly, they are forced to sell those assets to repay loans.

We saw this in August 2024: A small BOJ rate hike sent the yen higher. Bitcoin crashed from $64K to $49K in six days. Crypto lost $600B in value.

- So yen strength creates short term risk for crypto.

- But dollar weakness creates long term upside.

Now, why is this bullish for crypto ?

Because Bitcoin is still well below its 2025 peak. It is one of the few major assets that has not fully repriced for currency debasement.

If coordinated intervention actually happens and the dollar weakens, capital will look for assets that are still cheap relative to the macro shift. Historically, crypto benefits strongly from that environment.

This may become one of the most important macro setups of 2026.
#TrumpCancelsEUTariffThreat

​يعتبر مشروع Plasma أحد أكثر الحلول ابتكاراً في معالجة تحديات القابلية للتوسع التي تواجهها الشبكات اللامركزية اليوم، حيث يهدف إلى تقديم بيئة تقنية فائقة السرعة ومنخفضة التكلفة دون التضحية بمبادئ الأمان الأساسية. من خلال تقنياته المتطورة، يسعى المشروع لتمكين المطورين والمستخدمين من إجراء المعاملات وبناء التطبيقات المعقدة بسلاسة تامة، مما يجعل العملة الخاصة به $XPL عنصراً محورياً في هذا النظام البيئي المتكامل. إن الالتزام بتقديم محتوى أصلي ومبتكر حول مشروع @Plasma يعكس الثقة الكبيرة في قدرة هذه التكنولوجيا على تغيير خارطة الحلول التقنية في المستقبل القريب، ونحن نترقب بشغف ما سيقدمه هذا المشروع من تحديثات تغير قواعد اللعبة في سوق العملات الرقمية.
​#Plasma

Vanar Chain jest jednym z najbardziej innowacyjnych projektów na rynku obecnie, koncentrującym się głównie na integracji technologii blockchain w sektorach rozrywki, gier i wymiany cyfrowej z wysoką wydajnością. To, co wyróżnia ten projekt, to wykorzystanie zaawansowanych technologii, które zapewniają szybkość programowania i niskie opłaty, co czyni go idealnym miejscem dla deweloperów i twórców pragnących budować zrównoważone aplikacje zdecentralizowane. Dzięki silnym partnerstwom i wyraźnej wizji, Vanar Chain dąży do umożliwienia użytkownikom unikalnego doświadczenia cyfrowego, które łączy bezpieczeństwo i łatwość, co odzwierciedla prawdziwą moc tokena w przyszłym ekosystemie. Inwestowanie w treści i budowanie społeczności na platformach takich jak t-20 jest pierwszym krokiem w kierunku przyjęcia tej ogromnej transformacji cyfrowej, którą prowadzi t-22 obecnie.

The @Vanarchain network is rapidly becoming the gold standard for mainstream adoption by offering an eco-friendly, lightning-fast blockchain tailored for the entertainment and gaming industries. By utilizing $VANRY , the ecosystem provides a seamless bridge between real-world brands and digital assets, ensuring high security and negligible transaction costs that empower both creators and developers. As #VANRY continues to integrate cutting-edge AI and carbon-neutral technology, it stands out as a sustainable powerhouse designed to scale globally and redefine how we interact with the decentralized web.

Brad Garlinghouse zauważył, że główni giganci technologiczni, tacy jak Facebook, nie polegają na SWIFT.

Jeśli SWIFT zostanie usunięty z równania, #XRP wyróżnia się jako jedyna infrastruktura stworzona, aby wypełnić tę lukę. $XRP

Tryliony w globalnym kapitale mogą przenieść się na XRPL, potencjalnie przyspieszone przez uruchomienie tokena REAL 26 stycznia. Szacunki sugerują, że do $800B może wpłynąć do REAL—przygotowując możliwy szok podażowy. #Xrp🔥🔥

REAL, natywny dla XRP Ledger, został zaprojektowany do przenoszenia wartości na globalnym rynku o wartości $654T z niezwykle ograniczoną podażą.