SomeTradingGuy

З кожним днем спека на вулиці посилюється, спека на футбольних полях чемпіонату світу посилюється, а івент Бінанс (https://www.binance.com/activity/pick-and-win/2026-football-challenge?ref=842459421) продовжується. Тут можна не перевірити свої знання і вдачу, а й заробити кілька доларів. Що теж є приємним.
#BinancePickAndWin

What is about to end the group stage of the FIFA World Cup and the matches become more tense and responsible, the opponents are stronger and more aggressive. And with the Binance event (https://www.binance.com/activity/pick-and-win/2026-football-challenge?ref=842459421), everyone can test their knowledge of football and earn a bit.
#BinancePickAndWin

The World Cup keeps rolling, and so does the event on Binance (https://www.binance.com/activity/pick-and-win/2026-football-challenge?ref=842459421). All fans of the sport can not only enjoy the matches but also snag some minor rewards.
#BinancePickAndWin

$BTC entering a very interesting phase of the market.
Right now, over 10.5 million $BTC are in the red — meaning more than half of the current Bitcoin supply is trading below the entry price of holders. Historically, such moments have often coincided with capitulation phases: 2015, 2018, 2020, and 2022. Weak hands are gradually folding, and the market is getting tired of fear. It's precisely under these conditions that Bitcoin often starts to form a long-term bottom.
However, there is one crucial nuance now that wasn't present in previous cycles to this extent — the institutions.
Previously, the BTC market was mostly emotional and retail-driven. Now, on the scene are:
— spot ETFs,
— funds,
— large corporations,
— and professional capital.
And this could change the very structure of the cycles. The market is becoming less emotional but more dependent on liquidity and Fed policy.
So the main question now is: will the classic Bitcoin cycle repeat, where a new strong rally follows capitulation?
Personally, I think the cyclicality hasn’t gone anywhere — it’s just become more 'mature.' The market no longer moves as wildly as it did in 2013 or 2017, but the logic of fear, capitulation, and new accumulation is still in play.
#UkrainianContent

$DEXE is once again trying to break its barrier at $24. However, unlike previous attempts where it crashed down almost immediately, it seems like a launchpad is forming at the $22-23 range. Only after that will there be an attempt to storm the $24-25 level and try to hold above it.
For now, I have little faith that it will succeed. Let's see.

#UkrainianContent

The football event (https://www.binance.com/activity/pick-and-win/2026-football-challenge?ref=842459421) related to the World Cup is still going on. During this time, I've made 18 successful picks and 6 losses. Not too shabby - a 75% hit rate))) I've snagged 9 rewards totaling around $4. Not much, but if you're into football, it's a nice little bonus for a beer before the match or a morning coffee))

#BinancePickAndWin

The market is shaping up to be quite an interesting picture right now.
On one hand, the dominance $BTC continues to hold strong and even bounced off its 700-day support: capital isn't rushing into altcoins just yet. Essentially, the market still views Bitcoin as the "safest" asset within crypto. Therefore, a full-blown altseason isn’t kicking off just yet.
However, the Coinbase Premium Index has remained negative for 44 consecutive days — that's a record-long streak. Spot BTC ETFs have shown a net outflow of over $6 billion in the last month. And that's not just a sign of internal capital redistribution within crypto, but rather a general weakening of demand, especially from the American market.
And here’s a crucial point: capital isn't flowing from BTC into alts — capital is partially exiting the market altogether.
That's why we're seeing a strange combination:
— BTC dominance remains high,
— altseason isn't starting,
— yet Bitcoin itself is under pressure.
I get the feeling that trust in the crypto market is generally declining, and we can forget about altseason for now. However, usually, when blood is in the streets and everyone is shaking in fear — that’s exactly the moment to enter long-term positions. We’ll see how it plays out this time.

#UkrainianContent

The event on Binance continues (https://www.binance.com/activity/pick-and-win/2026-football-challenge?ref=842459421) dedicated to the World Cup in Mexico and the USA. Don’t expect crazy prizes, but you can score a few cents. Plus, it’s way more exciting to watch the match when you have a stake (even if it didn’t cost you anything).

#BinancePickAndWin

Regarding $ETH , there are conflicting news about its future. On one hand, Ethereum is gearing up for the launch of Glamsterdam, which has already entered the final development stage. If the release goes smoothly, Ethereum could gain new momentum: faster L2 solutions, improved infrastructure, and a resurgence of interest in the ecosystem.
However, alongside this, another issue arises — funding for core development. According to Trent VanEpps, Ethereum could face a "slow funding crisis" in the next 3–9 months. The reasons include budget cuts from the Ethereum Foundation and the expiration of certain developer support programs.
This brings us to the main market paradox: the network is technically becoming stronger, but the support system for the people developing that network is weakening.
For an ecosystem the size of Ethereum, this is no small matter. Core development is the foundation for all future upgrades, security, and stability of the network. Ecosystem participants estimate that maintaining it properly requires tens of millions of dollars each year. If the funding model doesn't change, Ethereum will need to find new mechanisms to support developers and more sustainable institutional solutions.

#UkrainianContent

$AGT looks unusually strong. After an impulse of over +100%, the token hasn't experienced the classic dump, even though the 4H RSI is already overheated — around 80. This is an important signal: buyers are still controlling the market, and sellers can't even push for a normal correction.
On the 1H, we can see a slowdown in the impulse: the candlesticks have become shorter, and the volume is no longer as aggressive. This often indicates a local cooling-off period before either a continuation of the move or a sharp sell-off. If the price starts to set new local highs without an increase in volume — that will be the first sign of exhaustion.
On the 4H, the structure is still bullish:
— the price remains significantly above the EMA 20/50;
— MACD is still positive;
— the trend is vertical, and such moves rarely last long without a pullback.
LS Ratio 0.39 — a very interesting point: the current rise is not driven by a crowd of retail traders using leverage, but rather by spot demand or a large buyer. That's why there hasn't been a dump yet.

I'm definitely not going long for now, but I'm considering going short.

#UkrainianContent

Finally, I've been waiting for $DEXE to dip. I should've added more at $24, but that's how it goes.

If we break the $15 mark per token, I think we’re heading for $10. At least I've set a take-profit around $11.

#UkrainianContent #dexe

$BTC and the logic of cycles: has the trend really not broken yet?
If we overlay the current market structure on the classic 4-year Bitcoin cycle chart, it’s clear that each previous cycle ended with an overheating phase, after which a deep bear market always followed, leading to a new high in the next cycle.
This is exactly what Brian Armstrong is pointing out. His thesis is simple: the market at any moment almost always looks either too weak or too strong, but rarely reflects the full picture of the long-term trend.
Right now, the market is in a zone where there’s no clear answer: is it the late stage of a bull cycle or still the middle of a longer growth structure?
Armstrong leans towards the latter: the long-term trend is still intact, and the cyclical logic is still in play.
But there’s an important nuance: each new cycle becomes less "extreme" in percentage terms. So even if history repeats itself, the movement shape changes — smoother, more institutional, less chaotic.
And here, the main question remains open: are we still within the classic cycle… or already in a new phase where old models only partially apply?

$ZEC — like a phoenix rising from the ashes. 🔥

Just a few days ago, the coin experienced a real disaster: due to a discovered vulnerability, the market went into a panic sell-off, and the price plummeted by over 50%.

But the crypto market loves to surprise. After an additional security audit involving Claude Mythos from Anthropic, no new critical issues were found in the protocol. For investors, this was a signal that the worst might be behind us.

The results didn’t take long to show: within a day, $ZEC gained over 20%, and trading volumes skyrocketed by more than 57%, exceeding $750 million. Buyers returned to the asset that just recently many were quick to write off. Now we’re witnessing a classic example of how fear shifts to greed. Those who sold in panic are watching a rapid rebound, and traders are once again looking for entry points.

However, we shouldn’t forget: after such moves, volatility remains extremely high. That’s why euphoria can be just as dangerous as panic.

Do you believe that $ZEC can return to its former heights, or is this just a short-term bounce after a severe drop?

#UkrainianContent #ZECUSDT

So, what can we take away from the event (https://www.binance.com/activity/pick-and-win/2026-football-challenge?ref=842459421)? I correctly nailed 6 predictions, and for that, I scored vouchers for 100 C and 2080 SXT. These aren’t tokens per se; they’re just the yield generated at an APR of 20% over the 7-day duration of the voucher. It's kind of whatever. Maybe I'll at least get a few cents in the weekly rewards.
#BinancePickAndWin

🐹 Has the hamster woken up?
$HMSTR In the past few days, it has staged a real rally: the token has added about 70%, and in just one day, it showed over +40%. The price has already climbed above 0.00029 USDT, and trading volumes and activity on futures have surged.
📊 Current picture:
• RSI on the 1H is around 60 — no overheating yet.
• Open Interest — around 23.9B.
• Long/Short Ratio — 1.32, with the advantage currently on the buyers' side.

Does this mean we should rush to buy? Not necessarily. When the crowd starts believing that "the rocket is just taking off" after a strong rise, the market often throws painful corrections. Overall, I view this coin as a scam and don't believe in its growth.

What are your targets for the hamster this cycle? 🚀

#UkrainianContent

Yesterday, I participated in the event (https://www.binance.com/activity/pick-and-win/2026-football-challenge?ref=842459421) dedicated to the 2026 World Cup. Well, my first prediction turned out to be spot on. But it's still unclear what the rewards will be. For now, I'll keep participating. Maybe I’ll rake in a few cents on the side: not much, but this event doesn’t take up much time.

#BinancePickAndWin

🤔 Are we going to see a dip today $BTC ?
Today, the U.S. inflation data (CPI) drops, and it could set the market's mood for the next few days.
There's an interesting pattern: in recent months, Bitcoin has often moved against expectations following the CPI release. When the market dipped before the report, it frequently saw a rally after the data came out. Conversely, when BTC surged confidently beforehand, traders often faced a wave of profit-taking.
And here's the kicker. Ahead of today's CPI, Bitcoin has already risen about 9%. This suggests that some market players are already pricing in a positive scenario.
Thus, the main risk for the bulls is inflation coming in higher than expected. In that case, the market might start factoring in a more aggressive Fed policy, which usually hits risky assets hard, including Bitcoin.
If the CPI comes in at or below forecasts, BTC could get the fuel needed to keep climbing.

#UkrainianContent #bitcoin

Another painful lesson for altcoin holders.
The token $H from Humanity Protocol crumbled more than 80% within a day after wallets linked to the project were compromised. Estimates suggest losses ranged from $20 to $31 million, as the price of $H plummeted from around $0.7 to $0.095.
Project founder Terence Kwok stated that the cause was a leak of a private key from one of the fund's employees. However, well-known on-chain researcher ZachXBT questioned the official narrative. In his opinion, the sell-off structure looks atypical for a standard hack, and the attack may be linked to a market maker's activities.
Interestingly, issues with Humanity Protocol had been piling up even earlier. After the token launch, the project had already faced criticism regarding the quality of its user base, as well as concerns about tokenomics and token distribution.

#UkrainianContent #scam

What do you think about $DEXE ? Are we going to break the historical high at $24? We've already tested it once and bounced back. The reason I'm asking is personal)) - I'm in a short (and in the red). So I'm wondering whether to close at a loss or wait it out.
If I close, it will be like always - it will drop down(((

Just today I was talking about the potential bottom zone of the current cycle $BTC , and I literally stumbled upon a fresh analysis from Rafael Schultze-Kraft.
For those who don't know, Rafael is a co-founder and one of the key analysts at Glassnode, which specializes in on-chain Bitcoin analytics as well as the crypto market overall. Their metrics are often used by funds, analysts, and major market players.
And the most interesting part is that his findings are very similar to what we discussed earlier. According to his assessment, the most likely zone for bottom formation is between $46,000 and $54,000. He doesn't completely rule out a drop to $35,000–40,000, but considers it significantly less likely.
Another interesting point is that BTC has now entered the price levels where long-term bottoms have often formed in previous cycles. According to Rafael, only about 7% of Bitcoin's entire trading history has occurred below the current values of some key on-chain metrics.
But it's still too early to talk about a reversal. The analyst himself believes that for Bitcoin to restore its bullish structure, it needs to regain and hold levels around $75,000–79,000.
So, we wait and hope for the best)))

#UkrainianContent #bitcoin