Historical data confirms: every US president whose approval rating was below 50% in the month before the midterm elections lost seats in the House of Representatives. The only question is the scale. There have been no exceptions since 1946.

The war in the Middle East began from a demonstrably weakened political position for Trump. By early March 2026, Trump's overall approval rating was 38% – the worst figure of his entire presidency. On Iran specifically, it was only 36%, which is unacceptably low for societal consolidation.

The last time someone approached midterms with a comparable rating was George W. Bush, and the resulting seat change in the House was a 30-seat gain for the Democrats.

The largest defeat in midterm election history was suffered by the Democratic Party under Obama (with fall ratings around 45%), losing 63 seats due to the severe consequences of the 2008-2009 economic crisis, which impacted the poor and the middle class. It was then that Obama led a popular, yet fake, campaign "against the fat cats – the banksters on Wall St."

Among Republicans, support for the military campaign in Iran is expressed by about 77% of voters, splitting into 85-90% within the MAGA sect and 54-56% among "non-MAGA" Republicans. Among Democrats, about 18% support the military campaign.

Only 27% of Republicans and a negligibly small percentage of Democrats favor a ground operation.

It's important to understand that the costs of the war haven't yet spread – there have been no major and/or sensitive US military losses, no transmission of the war's effects onto household financial balances (significant stock market drop, bond market destabilization, across-the-board price increases), and no macroeconomic consequences in the form of supply chain disruptions or energy crisis impacts on industry and the economy.

Everything happening so far exists exclusively in the media space – essentially, just as background noise. In other words, within the US, outside of the information environment, sensitivity and receptivity to the war in the Middle East is near zero – there are no consequences, no costs. But that's the case for now.

For the US, or rather for Trump and the Republican Party, the duration of the war, the damage to US armed forces, and the financial, economic, and geopolitical costs (military and energy pressure on partners in the Middle East, Iran, and Europe) will quite literally determine the survival of the MAGA sect.

A resounding defeat in the November midterm elections is extremely likely, which would bring Trump's legislative agenda to a halt. The Democrats, gaining a majority, would immediately gain control of the Rules Committee, without which no bill can be brought to a vote. This would turn Trump into a "lame duck" with no political weight, amid increasing fragmentation and polarization, even within the MAGA sect.

Right now, Trump, controlling Congress, has the ability to "go wild" with a relentless stream of legislative initiatives, but not after a midterm defeat.

The impeachment process begins in the House of Representatives with a simple majority vote (218), which Democrats could achieve as early as November. However, the second threshold in the Senate may NOT be reached, as a qualified majority of 67 votes is required.

In fact, no impeachment in US history has ever succeeded precisely because of the Senate. Neither Johnson (1868), nor Clinton (1999), nor Trump (2020, 2021) were convicted for this very reason.

Even with maximum success, Democrats could gain no more than 50–52 senators against the minimum required 67, so purely legally, impeachment is unlikely. However, media-wise, it will most likely be initiated in early 2027.

Nevertheless, Trump could become toxic within the Republican Party, as a series of failures might trigger a split within the party and a fight for survival.

The situation with Iran could provoke the strongest economic and energy crisis in history, which would deprive Republicans of any chance at power for the next 8 years.

Such a political and economic crisis would likely trigger a sharp risk-off move, initially crashing BTC and ETH alongside equities, though their subsequent trajectory would depend on whether the crisis leads to dollar debasement fears or simply a liquidity crunch.

To be continued…