Polymarket odds of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire by May 15 fell to 37% after a 45% drop over 24 hours. Trading volume in the related event contract exceeded $107 million. Two U.S. officials said the United States struck more than 50 military targets on Khark Island early Tuesday Eastern Time before Trump's deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Vance said the deadline was Tuesday at 8 p.m. Eastern Time and said Khark Island did not signal a strategic shift.
