Bitcoin’s 2026 outlook is fracturing opinion across the industry, with major asset managers and market analysts split between a steely bullish rebound and a more cautious, potentially bearish path. The bullish camp - Firms including VanEck, Bitwise, Grayscale, Bernstein and Coinbase see scope for a strong comeback in 2026, with some calling for a fresh all-time high around $150,000. - Bitwise and VanEck argue that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle may have effectively ended after BTC closed 2025 in the red. In their view, crypto could move more in tandem with U.S. equities going forward, reducing the likelihood—or severity—of a classic crypto bear market. - VanEck’s Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel points to the Relative Unrealized Profit (RUP) reading of 0.43 (well below the ~0.70 level that historically signaled cycle tops) as evidence that a tactical cycle top is not imminent and there is room for upside—even after BTC reached $126k last year. (Source: VanEck / Glassnode) The skeptical view - Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, pushed back publicly on the “no more bear markets” thesis. He told followers on X that he’s “skeptical of the idea that bear markets are no longer going to happen,” identifying $65k (the prior high) as the key “line in the sand,” and $45k as the next major downside level if momentum deteriorates. Timmer added that if Bitcoin consolidates for about a year, $65k could still be reachable, citing the Bitcoin Power Law and other proprietary models. (Source: Jurrien Timmer / X) On-chain signals and bear-market warnings - CryptoQuant flagged that Bitcoin entered a bear market in early November after breaking below its 1-year moving average. Founder Ki Young Ju highlighted slowing capital growth at the network level—tracked by the Realized Cap indicator—which historically preceded the 2018–2020 and 2022–2023 bear markets. - In November 2025 the Realized Cap signaled bear-market risk for the first time since 2023. If the Realized Cap stagnates or declines further, it would reinforce bearish precedents and could dent some of the bullish 2026 scenarios. (Source: CryptoQuant) What to watch in 2026 - Price levels: bulls targeting ~ $150k; key support/resistance at $65k and $45k per Timmer; some bears eyeing a $65k–$75k rebound window for a later 2027–2028 cycle. - On-chain indicators: Relative Unrealized Profit (RUP), Realized Cap, and network capital growth. - Technicals: the 1-year moving average remains an important trend filter. Bottom line Consensus is far from settled. Some major players see a renewed bull run and new highs on the horizon, while respected macro and on-chain analysts warn that traditional bear dynamics remain possible. Traders and investors should monitor the RUP, Realized Cap, 1-year MA and key price levels to gauge which narrative gains traction through 2026. Disclaimer: This article is informational only and not investment advice. Cryptocurrency trading carries high risk—do your own research before making decisions. © 2026 AMBCrypto Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news

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