Bitcoin has entered its most precarious phase since 2024, as technical breakdowns and underwater sentiment create a perfect storm for a deeper correction.
- Technical Breakdown: BTC has lost the 21-week and 50-week SMAs (both above $101K), signaling a structural shift to the downside. A looming "Death Cross" （21-week x 50 week ）and a bearish weekly MACD suggest selling pressure is far from over.
- Liquidity & Sentiment: On-chain activity is cratering compared to 2025 peaks. With the STH MVRV at ～0.85, short-term holders are underwater, turning market sentiment from "buy the dip" to "exit at breakeven".
- The "Exit Wall": 1-3 month holders have established a massive resistance zone at $95.8K. While $86-88K offers immediate on-chain support, the lack of spot buying volume makes this defense fragile.
Strategic Playbook:
📒 Bearish Bias: If BTC fails to reclaim $95K on high volume, expect further downside.
--> Longs: Tiered entries in the $86K–$88K support zone.
--> Shorts: Target bounces to $93K+ (SL above $96K) or trade the momentum break below $87K.
Written by Sunny Mom