Bitcoin has been stuck in a tight range for weeks, leaving traders frustrated and fueling bearish narratives — even as deeper on-chain signals hint the market may be changing in character. Market mood and on-chain signals Price action has been choppy, momentum has faded, and volatility has compressed — a setup that typically amplifies pessimism. That’s why a growing number of analysts expect a broader bear market. But several on-chain indicators suggest a different story beneath the surface: long-term holders are less reactive, sell-side pressure has eased, and overall on-chain activity points to a slower, more deliberate market. In short, Bitcoin appears to be shifting from a reflexive risk asset toward an instrument held with a longer time horizon. Regulatory calendar: CLARITY Act markup on Jan. 15, 2026 A key policy milestone is coming: the US Senate Banking Committee will mark up the crypto market-structure bill known as the CLARITY Act on January 15, 2026. Market participants should not treat that event as an immediate price catalyst. Instead, it could be an inflection point in how Bitcoin is regulated and positioned within the US financial framework — a development that already seems to be reflected in on-chain behavior. What the data shows A CryptoQuant report by XWIN Research Japan highlights two metrics that paint a patient market posture: - Exchange Netflow: Historically, regulatory uncertainty drives coins onto exchanges as investors prepare to sell. Ahead of the CLARITY markup, exchange inflows have remained muted, implying traders aren’t massing defensively. - SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio): SOPR is hovering around or slightly below 1.0, signaling subdued profit-taking and generally low on-chain spending. In plain terms, coins aren’t being moved aggressively to lock in gains or exit positions. Together these metrics suggest holders are willing to sit through uncertainty rather than rush to de-risk — a behavior consistent with more institutional or long-term holding patterns. Technical picture After a sharp correction that began in November, Bitcoin rejected the $120K–$125K area and plunged to a local bottom in the mid-$80K zone before buyers stepped in. Since then price has formed a higher-low structure, indicating weakening downside momentum. Key levels to watch: - Immediate pivot: ~$92K — Bitcoin is attempting to stabilize above this former support-turned-resistance. Holding above it would increase the odds of a recovery toward $98K–$100K, where several short-term moving averages converge. - Range: Roughly $88K–$95K — as long as BTC trades inside this band, the market is likely to remain range-bound. - Broader caution: BTC is still below the 100- and 200-day moving averages, both sloping down, and trading volume is muted — technicals that argue the medium-term trend remains fragile. Bottom line Surface-level price weakness and range-bound trading have fed bearish headlines, but on-chain signals point to a market growing more “sticky” and patient. With the CLARITY Act markup looming as a potential structural turning point in US regulation, Bitcoin may be transitioning toward a phase defined more by long-term holding and institutional positioning than by rapid speculative rotations. A decisive break above resistance or a loss of current support will be needed to resolve the consolidation and define the next directional move. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news

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