ADEEL TRADES

$ETH The crypto market bears have strengthened since the start of the month as the top tokens, Bitcoin and Ethereum, have attracted significant selling pressure. While BTC price is feared to drop below $60,000, ETH is showing mixed but increasingly cautionary signals. Now that the Ethereum price is about to test one of the crucial support levels at $2000, the question arises whether the distribution phase is about to begin.
Ethereum Transfer Activity Hits 1.17 Million
On-chain data shows Ethereum transfer count has surged to 1.17 million, a level historically associated with late-cycle market behavior. Similar spikes were last seen near market tops in 2018 and 2021, periods that preceded sharp volatility and prolonged consolidations.

While high network activity is often interpreted as bullish, history shows that activity peaks without sustained price expansion can signal distribution. In such phases, large holders continue transacting, but price struggles to trend higher as supply gradually outweighs demand.
Notably, Ethereum’s price has failed to establish a strong upside continuation despite rising transfers, reinforcing the view that network usage is no longer translating into directional price strength.
ETH Price Drifts Toward a High-Liquidity Zone
At the same time, derivatives data highlights a dense liquidity cluster between $1,800 and $2,000, where a large concentration of leveraged positions sits. Liquidation heatmaps show this zone acting as a magnet for price, particularly during periods of weakening momentum.

As ETH moves closer to this range, downside liquidity becomes increasingly attractive from a market-structure perspective. In distribution environments, price often drifts toward areas with maximum liquidation potential, rather than breaking higher resistance levels. This setup suggests that short-term price action may remain reactive and volatility-driven, with sharp moves possible as leverage is flushed out.
What Traders Should Watch Next
Both charts combined indicate active participation with potential supply rotation with the probability of downside tests. The second-largest token now appears to be more vulnerable to liquidity-driven moves due to a lack of strong upside follow-through. These points hint towards a distribution phase where markets transition from momentum-driven to balance-seeking behaviour. 
Overall, the Ethereum ETHUSD price is not showing signs of panic or breakdown, but the data suggests the risk remains skewed to the downside in the near term.
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#WhenWillBTCRebound #WarshFedPolicyOutlook #WhaleDeRiskETH

$XRP
O que saber:
Vitalik Buterin alerta que cadeias EVM ‘copiar-colar’ estão chegando a um beco sem saída, instando os desenvolvedores a construir inovações técnicas genuínas.
O mercado está mudando o foco para projetos que resolvem ameaças existenciais como ‘colher agora, decifrar depois’ em vez de apenas velocidade de transação.
BMIC utiliza criptografia pós-quântica e ERC-4337 para eliminar a exposição de chaves públicas, alinhando-se à demanda por soluções de ‘deep tech’.
Dinheiro inteligente está se protegendo contra a obsolescência criptográfica futura, visando infraestrutura que protege ativos contra computação quântica.

Bitcoin BTCUSD price dropped by more than 22.5% in the past week to $69,000 on Thursday, wiping out 15 months of gains entirely. However, the downtrend may not be over, according to veteran trader Peter Brandt.
Key takeaways:
Brandt says “campaign selling” is pressuring BTC, with miners and ETFs also cutting exposure.A potential bottom zone is near $54,600–$55,000.

Bitcoin may drop another 10% as miners, ETFs cut BTC exposure
BTC’s decline left behind a sequence of daily lower highs and lower lows. Simply put, the lack of even modest rebounds suggests few traders are stepping in to buy the dip, at least for now.
This structure, according to Brandt, had “fingerprints of campaign selling,” a deliberate, sustained distribution by large institutions, not retail liquidation.

Onchain data supports Brandt’s outlook. For instance, as of Thursday, the BTC miner net position change metric was showing a clear shift into net distribution throughout January, with miners consistently sending more BTC to the market.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs also reduced their exposure, with net BTC balances falling to 1.27 million BTC as of Wednesday from 1.29 million at the beginning of the year.
The Coinbase premium, a barometer linked to institutional interest, also fell to yearly lows.

This distribution boosted Bitcoin’s chances of reaching its bear flag target of around $63,800, down 10% from current levels, as shown below, based on Brandt’s technical setup.

Bitcoin may bottom below $55,000
Bitcoin risks a deeper drop toward $54,600 amid continued institutional selling, according to onchain analyst GugaOnChain.
The downside target is aligned with the lower zone (red) highlighted in the BTC DCA Signal Cycle metric below. This zone reflects Bitcoin’s one-week to one-month realized price and helps identify periods when BTC is structurally undervalued.

In 2022, the signal turned bullish as BTC fell below the same red zone near $20,000, forming a bottom around the level, before rallying to over $30,000 a year later.
GugaOnChain said:
“The current price convergence toward the band signaling the start of the accumulation phase, situated around $54.6K, suggests we are in the critical transition between Capitulation and Accumulation.”
Meanwhile, another analysis highlights a potential accumulation window emerging after July 2026, based on historical lag effects between widening credit spreads and Bitcoin market bottoms.
#WhenWillBTCRebound #WarshFedPolicyOutlook #ADPDataDisappoints

$BTC Key points:
10x Research pointed to the unwinding of earlier cycle investments as a key driver.Peter Brandt described the move as campaign selling marked by steadily lower highs.Simply put, large-scale withdrawals might be tightening liquidity during a volatile period.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) price sank further on Wednesday night, hovering near $70,000 as traders speculated on why Bitcoin is dropping despite improving long-term narratives.
The apex cryptocurrency has fallen nearly 20% this year so far, and is trading 40% below its record high of over $126,000 seen in October. According to experts like Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, this may be the tail-end of the crypto winter. 
Why Is Bitcoin’s Price Dropping?
Analysts at 10x Research stated that the current drawdown in Bitcoin's price is because of a broader reassessment of capital deployed earlier in the cycle, rather than a collapse in conviction around Bitcoin’s long-term role.
“Each cycle introduces new narratives and promoters, often successfully attracting billions and, in this cycle, tens of billions of dollars in capital for single investments,” the firm said in a note. “Ironically, it is the subsequent reassessment of these allocations by investors, and the unwinding of the capital raised, that is now exerting downward pressure on Bitcoin.”
Veteran trader Peter Brandt echoed that view, describing the selloff as methodical rather than disorderly. In a post on X, Brandt said Bitcoin’s eight-day pattern of lower highs and lower lows carried “all the fingerprints of campaign selling, not retail liquidation,” adding that such phases can persist without a clear signal for when they will end.
Withdrawals Add Another Layer of Pressure
Binance co-founder Yi He said members of the crypto community have initiated what she described as a “withdrawal campaign” on the world’s largest crypto exchange, encouraging users to move assets off trading platforms.
“Although the number of assets in Binance addresses has increased after the campaign was launched, I believe that regularly initiating withdrawals from all trading platforms is a very effective stress test,” Yi He wrote. 
Crypto Sentiment Sours Despite Long-Term Optimism
Broader market sentiment has deteriorated alongside the price action. “Feels like everyone just gave up on crypto,” crypto market water Lark Davis. “Metals and stocks were largely the better investments this cycle unless you got some big memecoin win. Bad times.”
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around BTC dropped lower within ‘extremely bearish’ territory even as chatter remained at ‘extremely high’ levels. 

One user predicted that Bitcoin’s price may fall as low as $69,000 on Wednesday night.
https://www.stocktwits.com/Vlad_Put/message/644061244
Another anticipated a flash crash to $60,000.
https://www.stocktwits.com/Lazer_Ray/message/644060428
The latest move downward in Bitcoin’s price comes after the market anticipated the apex cryptocurrency would rise following the marked improvement in ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday. The reading crossed 50, usually a necessary condition for the crypto bull run.

#ADPDataDisappoints #WhaleDeRiskETH #EthereumLayer2Rethink?

$ETH O projeto de criptomoeda Payy, que opera uma carteira focada em privacidade juntamente com um cartão bancário de criptomoeda, acaba de lançar uma camada 2 do Ethereum com foco em privacidade.
Em um anúncio via X na quarta-feira, a Payy disse que os usuários agora podem integrar a rede em suas contas do MetaMask, e que todas as transferências ERC-20 feitas nela são automaticamente tornadas privadas, sem que sejam necessárias alterações no contrato inteligente.
A Payy disse que os dois tipos principais de usuários em sua rede seriam instituições e empresas de fintech que buscam trazer 'fluxos onchain sem medo de análise e exploração', e nativos de criptomoeda que desejam usar ferramentas de privacidade sem 'jogar com várias carteiras'.

$BTC
Os mercados de criptomoedas ainda não se estabilizaram após a recente venda acentuada, mas os analistas dizem que o desenvolvimento mais notável tem sido a fragmentação na liquidez e no desempenho entre locais e ativos, em vez de um reinício direcional decisivo.
O Bitcoin caiu mais de 17% na última semana, e está sendo negociado perto dos mesmos níveis da noite da vitória eleitoral do Presidente Donald Trump, de acordo com a página de preços do The Block.
A maior parte do mercado de criptomoedas imitou a queda do BTC, com grandes como Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL) e BNB todos caindo porcentagens de dois dígitos na última semana.

$BTC
Por Nate Wolf
Normalmente, você não vê uma empresa de Wall Street cortar sua meta de preço de uma ação em 60% e manter uma classificação de Compra intacta. Por outro lado, a Strategy não é uma ação normal.
A Canaccord Genuity reiterou uma classificação de Compra na Strategy — o maior detentor corporativo de Bitcoin do mundo — em uma nota de pesquisa na quarta-feira, mas reduziu sua meta para $185 de $474.
As ações da Strategy estão em baixa, então a reavaliação do preço provavelmente era devida. A ação caiu 3,9% para $128,05 na quarta-feira, colocando-a a caminho de seu fechamento mais baixo desde 11 de setembro de 2024, de acordo com os Dados de Mercado da Dow Jones.

$BTC O Bitcoin pode estar entrando em uma nova fase de mercado em baixa, de acordo com indicadores on-chain, fluxos institucionais enfraquecidos e condições de liquidez apertadas apontam para um amplo risco estrutural de baixa.
Em seu mais recente Relatório Semanal de Cripto, a CryptoQuant disse que múltiplas métricas on-chain agora confirmam um regime de mercado em baixa. A empresa observou que o Bitcoin atingiu seu pico perto de $126.000 no início de outubro, quando seu Índice de Pontuação Bull estava em 80, sinalizando um ambiente fortemente otimista.
O mercado em baixa do Bitcoin começou de forma mais fraca do que em 2022. Desde que caiu abaixo da MA de 365 dias em 12 de novembro de 2025, caiu 23% em 83 dias, em comparação com apenas 6% no mesmo período no início de 2022. O momento está se deteriorando mais rapidamente neste ciclo. — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com)

$SOL Em 2025, a narrativa de privacidade foi dominada principalmente pelo Zcash ($ZEC) e Monero (XMR).
Os traders que possuíam qualquer uma dessas moedas durante o mercado de baixa de privacidade de 2023-2024 perceberam retornos de até 10x até o final de 2025.
Embora o mercado de privacidade de camada 1 tenha começado a recuar, com ambos ZEC e XMR sendo negociados bem abaixo de suas máximas históricas, o ecossistema Solana parece estar mudando seu foco para a privacidade.
O conceito antes central de privacidade articulado no agora famoso whitepaper do Bitcoin de Satoshi foi, por muito tempo, ofuscado na comunidade Solana pelos "trincheiras" de memecoin, especialmente no ano passado durante a mania dos streamers da pump.fun, mas agora parece estar em processo de assumir o centro das atenções.

$GAL $ETH $BTC Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.
Grab a coffee and settle in—markets are moving in ways that leave even seasoned investors squinting at charts. Gold and silver are surging, crypto is wobbling, and Washington’s policy plays are stirring uncertainty. But according to Tom Lee, somewhere in the chaos, a turning point may be quietly forming.
Crypto News of the Day: Tom Lee Says White House Front-Loading Midterm Wins Is Wrecking Markets
Fundstrat Global Advisors’ Tom Lee is sounding a cautious yet optimistic note for crypto investors, arguing that recent turbulence in Bitcoin and Ethereum may be temporary.
Appearing on CNBC’s Squawk Box, Lee attributed the early-year surge in gold and silver prices to Washington, D.C.’s policy maneuvers.
He says the White House’s plays have temporarily “hijacked” risk appetite, creating a “vortex” that drew capital away from crypto despite strong fundamentals.
Gold spiked to $4,954.99 per ounce, a 6.5% daily jump, while silver surged 13.66% to $87.53. This marks the largest single-day gains for both metals since the 2008 financial crisis.
Lee tied this frenzy to crypto’s ill-timed deleveraging in October 2025.
“The crypto industry doesn’t have any leverage right now,” he said. “Gold and silver’s performance sucked all risk appetite towards the precious metals trade.”
Lee also highlighted Washington politics as a central driver of market uncertainty. With midterms approaching, he criticized the White House for “deliberately picking more winners and losers early,” front-loading its agenda and keeping markets “hostage.”
Speculation around the next Federal Reserve chair adds further volatility, with Lee warning that markets will test the appointee’s resolve on policy and rates, echoing patterns seen with former chairs Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell.
While the consensus expects Republicans to lose the House, Lee noted that a GOP retention could deliver a “positive surprise.”
Signs Point to a Crypto Bottom Amid Gold and Silver Frenzy
Despite near-term headwinds, Lee sees signals that crypto may be bottoming. Fundstrat advisor Tom DeMark believes “time and price” alignment has been reached, with Bitcoin back above $78,000 and Ethereum nearing $2,300.

Lee added that Ethereum’s active addresses are “going parabolic,” as Wall Street increasingly integrates digital assets.
“All the pieces are in place for crypto to be bottoming right now,” he said, contrasting price weakness with network activity.
This view aligns with analysts’ notes on potential capital rotation, with some highlighting gold’s 11% rebound from recent lows, adding $3.07 trillion, and silver’s 20% surge, reclaiming $800 billion.
Analyst Bull Theory compares this setup to August 2020, when gold topped at $2,075, Bitcoin fell 20%, then rallied 559% over eight months as capital flowed back into risk assets.
With the ISM Manufacturing Index at 52.6%, the analyst suggested a similar rotation may be underway:
“Gold likely topping, and Bitcoin already having corrected, we could now see a rotation into risk-on assets,” they said.
However, not all commentary is bullish. Analyst Wimar.X warns that the metals’ surge signals a “broken system,” echoing pre-crash conditions in 2000, 2007, and 2019.
With the gold-to-silver ratio near 56, they argued that institutions are “exiting the casino,” potentially foreshadowing a 2026 collapse.

Lee, however, emphasized that the broader economic backdrop remains strong. Stocks were up 1% in January, historically correlating to 18% annual S&P gains in similar periods since 1950.
Even as AI and tech valuations may mean-revert, he sees precious metals taking a “breather” as healthy for markets, potentially clearing the way for crypto’s next move.
The question now is whether Washington-driven flows will continue to favor metals or if Bitcoin and Ethereum are ready for a rebound.
Chart of the Day

The Gold to Bitcoin dominance ratio compares the market cap of both assets.
Byte-Sized Alpha
Here’s a summary of more US crypto news to follow today:
Bitcoin’s safety net comes into view as Galaxy Digital warns of deeper pullback.Ethereum price warning: $1,500 risk appears as a bullish metric drops 90%.Bitcoin slips below $80,000 as large holders exit — But bounce signals are emerging.XRP price under pressure: ETF outflows, holder losses, and a possible rebound.MicroStrategy MMSTR stock barely escapes cost-basis scare — A 20% price swing awaits?Why Vitalik Buterin sold over 700 Ethereum ETHUSD despite market recovery.
Crypto Equities Pre-Market Overview
CompanyClose As of February 2Pre-Market OverviewStrategy MMSTR$139.66$140.80 (+0.82%)Coinbase COIN$187.86$189.53 (+0.89%)Galaxy Digital Holdings GGLXY$26.44$26.95 (+1.93%)MARA Holdings MMARA$9.12$9.18 (+0.66%)Riot Platforms RRIOT$15.32$15.53 (+1.37%)Core Scientific (CORZ)$17.87$18.05 (+1.01%)
Crypto equities market open race: Google Finance
#TrumpProCrypto #GoldSilverRebound #VitalikSells #StrategyBTCPurchase

$ETH
O preço do Ethereum começou um grande declínio após não conseguir ultrapassar $2.500. O ETH caiu 20% e agora está lutando para se manter acima do suporte de $2.200.
O Ethereum não conseguiu se manter acima de $2.550 e começou um novo declínio.
O preço está sendo negociado abaixo de $2.400 e da Média Móvel Simples de 100 horas.
Há uma importante linha de tendência de baixa se formando com resistência em $2.415 no gráfico horário de ETH/USD (dados fornecidos via Kraken).
O par poderia começar um novo aumento se permanecer acima da zona de $2.200.
Queda de 20% no preço do Ethereum

$BTC $ETH
Pontos-chave:
Os mercados de cripto testemunharam um colapso repentino no fim de semana, levando o Bitcoin de volta aos níveis de final de 2024 e desencadeando liquidações pesadas lideradas pelo Ethereum.
A venda acelerou após o presidente Donald Trump nomear Kevin Warsh como o próximo presidente do Fed.
Os analistas disseram que o movimento reflete uma fase de desalavancagem familiar em vez de danos estruturais.
O mercado de cripto sofreu um colapso repentino nas últimas 48 horas, onde a capitalização total do mercado caiu quase 4% para $2,56 trilhões, com liquidações na posição longa lideradas pelo Ethereum (ETH). No entanto, os analistas não estão muito preocupados e chamaram isso de um incidente de desalavancagem.

$ETH Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has proposed a new creator token model that combines decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) with prediction market mechanics to incentivize higher-quality content creation.
Creator tokens, or content coins, are blockchain-based assets that can grant fans a slice of ownership, access rights, or even royalties for the content creator’s work, which could be in the form of posts, photos, music, or videos. 
However, in a post on X on Sunday, Buterin said existing creator token platforms notably prioritize mass content creation over quality, and it’s now being exacerbated by AI-generated content.
To combat this, Buterin said one idea would be for content creators to launch tokens and apply to curated creator DAOs, where members decide which content to accept, while speculators profit by predicting which creators or content will be admitted.
Accepted content creators could then see their coins rise in value when the DAO burns their tokens, reducing supply and increasing scarcity.

He noted that many of the top creator coins on existing platforms like BitClout and Zora are led by celebrities or people of “very high social status,” making it challenging for creators to succeed purely on merit.
Another example, not mentioned by Buterin, is Friend.tech — a SocialFi app on Ethereum layer-2 Base that allowed creators to share content in private chatrooms accessed via tradable keys.
However, some criticized the platform because the price of the keys were driven mainly by speculation.
Friend.tech shuttered in September 2024 after activity had significantly dropped and the native token fell 95% from its high.
Focus on niches to win specific audiences, Buterin suggests
Buterin also recommended that DAOs avoid trying to capture the entire market and instead focus on certain content styles, whether short-form video or long-form writing, and the content should cater to a specific country or political audience, for example.
Related: Why proof-of-reserves alone doesn’t build real trust 
Buterin added: “The goal is to have a group that is larger than one creator and can accumulate a public brand and collectively bargain to seek revenue opportunities, but at the same time small enough that internal governance is tractable.”
The token speculators would also be assisting the DAO by helping surface high-quality content worth rewarding.
“Individual speculators can stay in the game and thrive to the extent that they do a good job of predicting the creator DAOs' actions,” Buterin sai
#WhenWillBTCRebound #PreciousMetalsTurbulence #MarketCorrection

$BTC Orçamento da Índia 2026: Dados sobre impostos de criptomoedas mostram que os investidores pagaram impostos mesmo após perdas
Novos dados mostram uma crescente diferença entre os resultados da negociação de criptomoedas e a responsabilidade tributária. Enquanto os traders de alta atividade contribuem com a maior parte do TDS, as margens de lucro finas significam que tanto investidores ativos quanto de varejo estão enfrentando pressão de liquidez.
No exercício financeiro de 2024–25, os resultados dos investidores foram quase igualmente divididos, com 50,91% relatando ganhos líquidos e 49,09% encerrando o ano com perdas líquidas. Apesar disso, os ganhos de capital tributáveis aumentaram para ₹3.722 crore, embora os lucros líquidos reais fossem menores. Investidores que coletivamente registraram ₹1.178 crore em perdas líquidas ainda pagaram imposto sobre ₹180 crore de ganhos, já que as regras atuais não permitem que as perdas sejam compensadas.