O Bitcoin não apenas despenca; ele segue um roteiro. Sempre que atingimos um Novo Máximo Histórico, os 'cisnes negros' começam a circular.
Se você não está olhando para os ciclos de 2013, 2017 e 2021, você está negociando com uma venda nos olhos.
Aqui está a anatomia de um crash de BTC:
Etapa 1: O Pico de 2013
ATH: $1.127
Notícias de Gatilho: Colapso da Mt. Gox e Proibição da China. A maior exchange do mundo na época faliu devido a um grande hack, juntamente com a primeira grande repressão da China sobre bancos que lidam com cripto.
Resultado do Mercado: Uma queda de 85% ao longo de vários anos que testou a paciência dos primeiros adotantes.
Etapa 2: O Disparo de 2017
ATH: $19.783
Notícias de Gatilho: Estouro da Bolha de ICO e Repressão da SEC. O mercado foi inundado com "Ofertas Iniciais de Moedas" que careciam de valor real. A pressão regulatória e o lançamento de futuros de Bitcoin levaram a uma grande liquidação.
Resultado do Mercado: O infame "Inverno Cripto" de 2018, onde o BTC permaneceu na lama por anos.
Etapa 3: O Duplo Pico de 2021
ATH: $69.000
Notícias de Gatilho: Colapso da Terra/Luna e FTX. Um ano de "cisne negro" onde o ecossistema Terra de $60B evaporou, seguido pelo colapso criminoso da exchange FTX e o aumento das taxas de juros globais.
Resultado do Mercado: Um evento brutal de desalavancagem que eliminou bilhões em valor de mercado e afastou investidores institucionais.
Não estou tentando ser pessimista, apenas honesto. As pessoas devem estar preparadas para a possibilidade de $0,50 XRP. Recentemente perdemos um nível de suporte importante, e há uma forte resistência acima de nós. Ainda sou otimista a longo prazo, mas os mercados não se movem em linha reta. Tirei lucros perto do pico e rotacionei para metais preciosos e outros ativos que ainda não tinham se movido. O XRP que ainda possuo não está sendo vendido, está em um protocolo DeFi regulamentado, gerando rendimentos enquanto espero. Menciono $0,50 XRP por causa da experiência. No ciclo de 2021, peguei um empréstimo contra minha cripto achando que o mercado se manteria. Não se manteve. Quase perdi tudo. Essa lição mudou a forma como opero.
Há dez anos, abracei a criptomoeda! Minha jornada começou em 2016, quando o Movimento Mondial Mavrodi (MMM), um esquema Ponzi disfarçado de oportunidade de investimento, estava se espalhando rapidamente pela Nigéria. Fiquei sabendo sobre o #Bitcoin através do MMM. Os usuários ganhavam 30% mensalmente usando Naira, enquanto o ROI mensal do Bitcoin era de 50%. Fiquei curioso para saber por que outra forma de moeda estava recompensando mais. Comecei a estudá-lo... Quanto mais eu aprendia, mais profundo meu interesse crescia. Logo após o MMM, outras plataformas surgiram. MMM United, MMM Myanmar, GetHelpWorldwide, Lara, Twinkas, apenas para mencionar algumas. Todas giravam em torno do Bitcoin.
🇨🇭UBS, o gigante bancário suíço com $6,9 trilhões em ativos sob gestão, está prestes a introduzir serviços de negociação de criptomoedas para seus clientes.
À medida que o #XRP Ledger domina o cenário global, a Banxchange está se unindo à Getblock para impulsionar o XRPL como um ecossistema de mídia descentralizado (enfrentando grandes players centralizados)!
Now that Andrew Tate is being investigated This has been his history in crypto: - Andrew Tate enters crypto through promotions Between 2021 and 2023, Tate became one of the most aggressive crypto promoters He used Twitter, YouTube, Telegram, and short-form clips pushed by affiliates. Investigators later linked him to at least 73 crypto promotions and 16 NFT projects. (Most of them collapsed btw) The list includes projects like: 📌 SAFEMOON 📌RAPDOGE 📌 ORION 📌 LIFE TOKEN 📌FLOKINOMICS ~ $730,000 earned from paid promotions alone during this period. - Hustler’s University At the same time, HUSTLER’S UNIVERSITY was scaling fast. The platform accepted crypto directly. BITCOIN, ETH, USDT, USDC. Onchain showed around $2.5M in crypto flowing into Hustler’s University wallets. - Roughly $1.6M came in Bitcoin. - Around $866k came via Ethereum-based assets. - Romanian asset seizures In 2023, Romanian authorities escalated their investigation. Assets seized included roughly 21 BTC, dozens of luxury vehicles, properties, watches, and large amounts of cash. The investigation centered on organized crime and human trafficking. - Now we talk about memecoins In mid-2024, Tate shifted strategy. Instead of promoting other projects, he launched his own. - DADDY went live on Solana. 40% of the supply was airdropped to a wallet publicly associated with Tate. A small public burn was executed. Larger burns were announced later, far exceeding real liquidity. Behind the scenes wallets bought before Tate’s promotional tweets. At the peak 10% of supply was controlled by linked wallets (valued around $16M) - Days later he launched RNT token. It collapsed almost immediately. Down 99%. The project was abandoned. By late 2024 and 2025, Tate began presenting himself as a high-level trader. On Hyperliquid, he ranked among the most liquidated accounts on the platform. A reported ~$727k loss attempting to short a memecoin. Separately, privacy researchers identified around $30M flowing through Railgun over two years Traced back to payment processors connected to Tate’s ecosystem. All while under active investigations.
🚨 ALERT: A MAJOR MARKET BREAKDOWN IS APPROACHING The latest macro data from the Federal Reserve confirms what very few are willing to admit: The global financial system is under growing stress, and the risks are accelerating. This is not noise. This is not a normal market pullback. And this is not bullish. WHAT JUST HAPPENED (AND WHY IT MATTERS) The Fed’s balance sheet has quietly expanded by ~$105 billion. Here’s the breakdown: • Standing Repo Facility: +$74.6B • Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS): +$43.1B • U.S. Treasuries: only +$31.5B This is critical. This is not growth-driven QE. This is emergency liquidity being injected because funding conditions tightened and banks needed immediate cash. When the Fed is absorbing more MBS than Treasuries, it sends a clear signal: → Collateral quality is deteriorating → Stress is rising inside the funding markets That only happens during periods of systemic pressure. THE BIGGER PROBLEM MOST PEOPLE ARE IGNORING U.S. national debt is no longer just “high.” It is structurally unstable. • Total debt: $34+ trillion • Debt growth: faster than GDP • Interest expense: becoming one of the largest federal budget items The U.S. is now issuing new debt just to service old debt. That is the textbook definition of a debt spiral. At this point, Treasuries are not truly “risk-free.” They are a confidence instrument. And that confidence is starting to crack. • Foreign demand is weakening • Domestic buyers are highly price-sensitive • The Fed quietly becomes the buyer of last resort Whether they admit it or not. This is why funding stress matters more than stock prices right now. You cannot: → Sustain record debt when funding tightens → Run trillion-dollar deficits while collateral quality worsens → Pretend this is a normal cycle THIS IS A GLOBAL ISSUE, NOT JUST A U.S. ONE China is facing the same structural problem at the same time. The PBoC injected over 1.02 trillion yuan in a single week through reverse repos. Different country. Same issue. Too much debt. Too little trust. The global system is built on rolling liabilities that fewer participants actually want to hold. When both the U.S. and China are forced to inject liquidity simultaneously, this is not stimulus. It is a warning sign that the global financial plumbing is starting to clog. WHY MARKETS KEEP MISREADING THIS PHASE Markets always make the same mistake here. Liquidity injections are interpreted as bullish. They’re not. This is not about supporting asset prices. This is about keeping funding alive. And when funding breaks, everything else becomes a trap. The sequence never changes: • Bonds move first • Funding markets show stress • Equities ignore it • Crypto absorbs the most violent damage THE SIGNAL YOU SHOULD BE WATCHING Gold: All-time highs Silver: All-time highs This is not a growth trade. This is not inflation optimism. This is capital rejecting sovereign debt. Money is moving out of paper promises and into hard collateral. That does not happen in healthy systems. We have seen this exact setup before: → 2000 before the dot-com collapse → 2008 before the global financial crisis → 2020 before the repo market seizure Each time, recession followed shortly after. THE FED IS CORNERED If they print aggressively: → Precious metals surge → Control is visibly lost If they don’t: → Funding markets freeze → Debt servicing becomes impossible Risk assets can ignore this reality for a while. They always do. But never forever. This is not a typical cycle. This is a balance-sheet, collateral, and sovereign debt crisis forming quietly in real time. By the time it becomes obvious, most participants will already be positioned wrong. 📌 Position carefully heading into 2026. I’ve tracked major market tops and bottoms for over a decade. When I make my next move, I’ll share it publicly. If you’re not paying attention now, you may wish you had later.
🚨 POR QUE O BITCOIN É UMA APOSTA MACRO — NÃO UMA NEGOCIAÇÃO
Esta decisão não tem nada a ver com indicadores, padrões ou ciclos de hype.
Não investi tudo em Bitcoin por causa da análise técnica. Não fiz isso por causa da redução pela metade. E definitivamente não fiz isso por causa das manchetes.
Fiz isso por causa da mecânica de liquidez.
Nos próximos 12 meses, estima-se que $4.7 TRILHÕES devem fluir para o sistema financeiro dos EUA. Não de uma só vez — mas em fases estruturadas.