cryptomarket

După luni de presiuni persistente în jos, XRP a intrat într-o fază de stabilizare vizibilă. Piața nu mai pare haotică sau condusă de panică. În schimb, acțiunea prețului sugerează consolidare, fără noi declinuri până acum. Deși tendința generală descendentă care a început la sfârșitul lunii iulie rămâne tehnic intactă, răspunsurile repetate de cumpărare în jurul nivelului de 1,8 USD indică faptul că momentum-ul bearish se slăbește treptat.
În același timp, un factor structural continuă să susțină piața: fluxurile de capital în fondurile tranzacționate pe XRP s-au extins acum timp de șapte săptămâni consecutive. Acest flux continuu reshapează dinamica ofertei și ridică întrebarea dacă stabilizarea actuală poate evolua într-o recuperare de preț mai amplă.

For more than a decade, Bitcoin’s market behavior has been closely associated with its well-known four-year cycle — a pattern tied to the halving events that reduce block rewards and slow the issuance of new BTC. Historically, this cycle has followed a relatively consistent structure: accumulation before halving, a strong post-halving rally, a market peak roughly 12–18 months later, and a prolonged correction phase.
However, as institutional participation deepens and market structure evolves, an increasing number of analysts argue that this familiar cycle may no longer fully apply.
Institutional Capital Is Reshaping Bitcoin’s Market Dynamics
The growing involvement of institutions has fundamentally altered Bitcoin’s supply-and-demand mechanics. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, expanding corporate treasuries, improving regulatory clarity in the United States, rising global liquidity, and potential leadership changes at the U.S. Federal Reserve are collectively contributing to a more structurally supported market.
These factors introduce persistent demand that did not exist in earlier cycles, reducing extreme volatility and potentially compressing drawdowns after major price peaks.
While some observers argue that Bitcoin’s recent ~30% pullback from its high still fits the post-halving weakness seen in prior cycles, this interpretation is becoming increasingly contested.
Analysts Who Believe the Four-Year Cycle Is Fading
Nick Ruck, Director at LVRG Research, told Cointelegraph that the traditional halving-driven cycle began showing signs of erosion as early as 2025. According to him, steady institutional demand via ETFs and corporate reserves has “muted post-peak declines and reduced volatility compared to previous cycles.”
Ruck suggests that although Bitcoin may experience short-term consolidation amid macroeconomic uncertainty, the broader uptrend could extend into 2026 — driven by structural capital inflows rather than speculative excess.
Grayscale has echoed a similar outlook, forecasting new all-time highs for Bitcoin in the first half of 2026. The firm cites macro-hedging demand, concerns over currency debasement, and a more favorable U.S. regulatory environment. Grayscale argues that 2026 could mark the definitive end of the four-year cycle as a dominant market framework.
Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Global Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, has also stated that the cycle theory is “no longer relevant,” with the bank projecting Bitcoin to reach $150,000 by the end of 2026.
Notably, this view is shared by several prominent industry figures, including Cathie Wood (ARK Invest), Arthur Hayes (BitMEX), Ki Young Ju (CryptoQuant), Matt Hougan (Bitwise), Hunter Horsley (Bitwise), and Raoul Pal (Real Vision), all of whom suggest that Bitcoin is transitioning into a more mature, institutionally driven asset class.
The Case for the Cycle Still Holding
Despite the growing skepticism, a segment of analysts maintains that the four-year cycle remains intact.
Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research, argues that Bitcoin entered a bear market in late October 2025, positioning it as one of the first major risk assets to reflect a global economic slowdown. From this perspective, recent price action aligns with historical post-cycle behavior.
Rekt Capital also believes the cycle structure persists, though he acknowledges that if it is breaking, the change may reflect Bitcoin’s maturation rather than a complete abandonment of cyclical behavior.
Others point out that market psychology itself may be accelerating downside pressure. Expectations of a “typical” post-halving bear market have led many traders to sell early, reinforcing bearish momentum.
PlanB, creator of the Stock-to-Flow model, notes that much of the selling pressure appears to come from veteran investors still influenced by the 2021 crash, along with participants who assume a deep bear market must follow two years after each halving.
Analyst Alex Wacy frames the debate differently, suggesting the issue lies not with the cycle, but with expectations:
“Altcoins are down. There’s no hype, no altseason — only frustration and fatigue. Meanwhile, equities are hitting new highs, AI is booming, and gold is outperforming. Cycles don’t always end — sometimes, they simply extend.”
A Market in Transition, Not Collapse
Rather than signaling the death of Bitcoin’s cyclical nature, current conditions may represent a transitional phase — one where halving effects still matter, but no longer dominate market structure as they once did.
If institutional adoption continues to grow, Bitcoin’s future cycles may become longer, flatter, and less emotionally driven, resembling traditional macro assets more than speculative instruments.
Whether the four-year cycle is broken or merely evolving, one conclusion is becoming increasingly clear: Bitcoin is no longer trading in the same market environment it once did.
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