Hey folks! ☕ Bitcoin's Q4 is plunging deep into the red zone right now, and the data is flashing some serious warning signs. Let's chat about it like we're grabbing coffee—no hype, just straight facts.
CryptoQuant analysts are raising red flags: BTC is heading for one of its worst Q4 performances ever, with the quarterly return sitting at around -20% (second-worst on record, only behind 2018's brutal winter). This isn't your typical dip—it's the kind that historically drags things down further.
What's the chart telling us? Simple:
Early 2025 quarters were pumping green.
But Q4 flipped hard into heavy losses.
When Q4 ends this negative, it often "anchors" the price and pulls it lower for the next couple months. We're probably looking at a deeper correction, not just a quick bounce.
Capitulation vibes: Why's everyone on edge?
Key metrics are screaming stress:
SOPR below 1: Holders selling at losses on average—classic capitulation.
Short-term holder MVRV under 1: Recent buyers are underwater and getting shaky.
Over 35% of supply in the red: Tons of coins bought higher than now, fueling ongoing sells.
Fear & Greed Index around 20-24: Straight-up Extreme Fear territory, usually late-stage correction signal.
Bottom line: Selling pressure isn't done yet—it's still grinding.
Demand side? Ouch, it's weak too:
Market cap shrinking big time.
ETF outflows hitting hard (hundreds of millions recently, including tax-loss harvesting and year-end moves).
Coinbase premium negative: US buyers/sellers leaning sell-heavy.
No strong inflows to prop it up.
So, the big picture from CryptoQuant and on-chain data: This correction could spill into Q1 2026. Until capitulation wraps up and demand stabilizes, rallies will hit walls.
What do you think? Is this deep Q4 dive the ultimate buy-the-dip moment before the next big run (like past cycles), or the start of a longer bear stretch? Drop your take below! 👇
#Bitcoin #Crypto #CryptoQuant $BTC