As 2025 draws to a close, Shiba Inu (SHIB) remains under clear selling pressure, with short‑term technicals signaling sustained weakness. Market data shows SHIB/USD trapped in a downtrend on the 4‑hour chart, where prices hover below key moving averages and reflect caution among traders. Yet deeper on‑chain and derivatives data suggest a market reset rather than outright capitulation as we head into 2026.
Bearish Technical Structure Dominates SHIB
Shiba Inu continues to struggle technically. On the 4‑hour timeframe, SHIB trades below its 20, 50, 100, and 200 exponential moving averages — a clear sign that sellers currently control price action. Since early December, the token has formed a series of lower highs and lower lows, pointing to a controlled decline rather than a panic sell‑off.
A break below the Fibonacci 0.236 level near $0.00000760 marked a pivotal shift in momentum, and SHIB now trades near $0.00000708, just above a key cyclical support around $0.00000701. This support zone will likely prove crucial in the short term.
If SHIB slips decisively below $0.00000700, the next targets could be $0.00000680 and potentially $0.00000650. On the flip side, any relief rally may immediately confront resistance in the $0.00000722–$0.00000730 band. A stronger recovery would require reclaiming $0.00000757 and eventually $0.00000800 — thresholds that have so far capped upward moves.
Directional indicators support the cautious outlook. The DMI’s ADX sits below 20, suggesting a weak trend and potential for extended consolidation unless volume increases sharply.
Derivatives and Chain Flows Point to Market Reset
Open interest in SHIB futures has cycled through leverage‑driven peaks and troughs throughout 2024 and 2025. Historically, dramatic increases in open interest coincided with price rallies, only to unwind rapidly as leverage was removed.
By mid‑2025, open interest settled in a range between roughly $100M and $250M, reflecting cautious participation. Notably, by the end of December, open interest dropped by about $80.9M, indicating significant deleveraging and lower liquidation risk. Rather than a forced sell‑off, this pattern suggests investors are resetting positions ahead of the new year.
Spot market flow data aligns with this interpretation. Recent months have been dominated by net outflows, pointing to consistent withdrawals from exchanges. Earlier short‑term spikes in inflows during May and July quickly faded as those relief rallies lost momentum. Since October, outflows have intensified alongside falling prices, with another roughly $1M net outflow recorded by late December. This behavior suggests accumulation and reduced immediate selling pressure.
Ecosystem Developments: Shib Owes You and Beyond
Beyond price action, the Shiba Inu ecosystem has rolled out a formal recovery framework — a structured response to the Plasma Bridge incident. The initiative, dubbed Shib Owes You (SOU), uses smart contracts to log and manage claims on‑chain.
Affected users receive Ethereum‑based NFT tokens representing their owed value, with flexibility to merge or split claims for partial liquidity. Funding for this effort will come from tighter oversight of ecosystem revenue streams, and all projects using the Shiba Inu brand are expected to contribute to the recovery fund.
This structured approach highlights a broader commitment to accountability and community value preservation despite market headwinds.
Longer‑Term Technical Outlook
From a broader perspective, SHIB’s price structure remains compressed within clearly defined levels.
Upside resistance levels to watch:
Immediate barriers: $0.00001238, $0.00001264, $0.00001286Breakout sweet spot: $0.00001472Extended rally target: $0.00001600
Key supports:
Primary defense: $0.00001180Secondary support: $0.00001100Lower downside buffer: $0.00000999
The 200‑day EMA near $0.00001364 remains a critical ceiling; clearing it could shift sentiment more bullishly for SHIB.
Technically, SHIB appears locked in a descending wedge pattern — an arrangement that often precedes volatility expansion when price eventually breaks out of the range. So while trend conviction is currently muted, momentum indicators suggest equilibrium rather than directional bias. The next decisive move will likely hinge on volume confirmation.
Will Shiba Inu Bounce Higher?
The near‑term prospects for Shiba Inu depend on whether buyers can defend support around $0.00001180 long enough to challenge the broader resistance cluster between $0.00001264 and $0.00001286. A renewed influx of capital and a breakout above these levels could ignite a rally toward $0.00001472 and possibly $0.00001600.
Conversely, failure to hold key support would break SHIB’s accumulation base and increase vulnerability to deeper correction.
In sum, SHIB is at a crossroads — still technically compressed and awaiting confirmation of the next trend shift. Traders and investors alike will be watching key support and resistance levels, as well as volume dynamics, to determine whether a reset turns into resurgence or continued consolidation.
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