Galaxy Digital has forecast a cautious future for Bitcoin in the year 2026, as the year will be extremely unpredictable while the long-term target price for Bitcoin will be $250,000 by the end of the year 2027. According to the most recent annual report filed by the company, while the future of large-scale Bitcoin adoption looks promising, the future might be unpredictable.
As 2025 draws to a close, it looks like Bitcoin is set to close with values near where it has started. This is even as it has managed to witness positive developments in ETF inflows andelight tendencies in regulation. According to Galaxy Digital, it is these positive aspects, along with macro pressures, leverage liquidations, and liquidity-driven sales from larger holders, that have ensured Bitcoin stays in the brackets of between 80,000 and 90,000.
The year 2026 is just too volatile to be predicted correctly according to Alex Thorn, the Director of Research for Galaxy Digital. Though he did not negate the fact that there would be new record highs in a year, he admitted that at present there is no structural trend to push the market upwards. According to the research piece, "unless Bitcoin can sustain above $100,000 to $105,000," there would be a negative influence on market performance.
Galaxy also assessed its projections from last year regarding Bitcoin hitting above $150,000 or reaching $185,000 by 2025, realizing that neither of the targets was realized. Galaxy noted that Bitcoin is closing the year with a negative Sharpe ratio and that spot Bitcoin ETFs have amassed about $141 billion in assets under management, which also fell short of previous estimates.
The Derivatives Market is another example that highlights the uncertainty associated with the year 2026. The options markets are nearly evenly split on the likelihood that Bitcoin will be trading at $70,000 as opposed to $130,000 by mid-2026. As we look further into the year, the possible outcomes are far more varied, from $50,000 to $250,000 by year's end. Galaxy explains that such a large range is due to uncertainties in external factors such as monetary policies, AI investments, and the U.S. elections. Despite the fact that there is no clear roadmap in the near term, Galaxy believes the potential quieter year is actually beneficial from the perspective of Bitcoin’s long-term positioning. The report indicates: "Regardless of whether Bitcoin is lower or higher at the end of 2026, the year may prove to have reinforced enduring confidence in Bitcoin's function in global markets".
Galaxy believes the potential normalization of Bitcoin’s volatility is actually beneficial from the perspective of Bitcoin's long-term positioning, thanks to its potential alignment with gold, which is a mature asset class, as explained by Thorn:
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