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Zhichun Finance APP learned that media reports citing informed sources indicate that the US federal government, under President Trump, plans to exempt American tech giants like Amazon (AMZN.US), Google (GOOGL.US), and Microsoft (MSFT.US) from the upcoming significant external chip tariff policies. This is mainly because these large tech companies are massively building AI data centers, and this vigorous AI investment process and construction are crucial for the US economy.

Insiders emphasize that these special exemption policies related to chip tariffs will be provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce after trade investigations and are closely related to TSMC (TSM.US), known as the 'king of chip foundries,' which has made significant investment commitments of over $100 billion for the manufacturing of high-performance AI chips and other cutting-edge chips with a process of 3nm and below in the U.S.

However, insiders emphasize that this large-scale tariff exemption plan is still being adjusted and has not yet received President Trump's signature approval.

Previously, TSMC emphasized in its earnings call in January that this global largest chip foundry manufacturer is actively investing up to $165 billion to build multiple large chip manufacturing plants in Arizona, USA. Currently, one of the plants has achieved domestic production capacity for 5nm chips.

How important is the construction process of AI data centers for the U.S. economy?

Undoubtedly, the construction of AI data centers has rapidly evolved from a technical investment to a significant driver of the macro economy. JPMorgan's latest calculations indicate that capital expenditures related to AI data centers could contribute approximately 0.1–0.2 percentage points (10–20 basis points) to U.S. GDP growth in 2025–2026, primarily driven by large cloud service providers like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon investing in the construction of large AI data centers and related infrastructure like 'Star Gate.' Such large-scale investments not only drive demand across multiple industrial chains, including construction, equipment, and power supply but also significantly alleviate the pressure on the slowing U.S. economic growth caused by a persistently weak labor market. This policy arrangement is also seen as being linked to commitments from key foundries like TSMC to expand production investment in the U.S. to ensure a stable supply chain for AI data center computing power and promote localized chip manufacturing.

In this context, if high tariffs are applied uniformly to the most critical hardware products essential for data center construction—namely key chips—it could significantly raise the construction costs of AI data centers, delay project progress, and even undermine investor confidence, thereby dragging down economic growth in the short term. Research has shown that tariffs themselves reduce economic growth and could compress capacity and capital stock in the long term.

Therefore, the latest rumors about tariff exemptions for core chips needed for AI data centers actually reflect the Trump administration's attempt to maintain the pace of super-large-scale AI computing infrastructure investments and prevent setbacks to market expectations and actual investments. This indicates that the federal government also seeks to view AI investment as a 'GDP growth engine' rather than merely a simple industrial policy benefit.

If the stock prices of American tech giants sharply adjust due to tariffs, the Trump administration cannot afford it.

Secondly, broader research and market analysis indicate that investments in AI and related technologies have become a crucial variable driving U.S. economic growth. For example, some Wall Street analysts point out that AI-related investments have contributed nearly 1% to U.S. GDP growth for 2024-25 and support consumption and investment activities by significantly boosting tech stock valuations and generating a considerable wealth effect, which is particularly important amid a backdrop of weakening traditional growth drivers.

Ultimately, if the stock prices of the 'Seven Giants,' which occupy a significant weight, sharply adjust due to chip tariff policies, it could trigger a financial crisis-level event for the U.S. stock market and economy.

In the broad technology sector of the U.S. stock market, the so-called Magnificent Seven (Mag 7), which comprises the seven major tech giants that hold significant weight in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 indices, has the greatest impact on the profitability of the tech sector. According to analysts' consensus expectations compiled by institutions, the overall profit growth rate for the 'Magnificent Seven' is expected to be around 24% in 2026, compared to an expected profit growth of about 12.5% for the remaining 493 companies in the S&P 500. This means that the profit growth rate of the 'Magnificent Seven' is almost twice that of the overall profit growth rate of the remaining large-cap companies in the U.S. stock market.

Therefore, from the perspective of profit expectations and market weight structure, the technology industry (especially the seven major tech leaders) remains the 'most core force' for profit growth and bull market performance in the U.S. stock market in 2026, far exceeding the overall profit expectations of the other 493 constituent companies in the index, which intensifies their influence on index trends. Although market rotations have become increasingly evident, from the perspective of profit expectations, this rotation may not last long. The unprecedented AI computing infrastructure construction process and the AI investment theme of the Mag 7 will likely continue to be the strongest mainline of the stock market throughout 2026, just as in 2024 and 2025.

The so-called 'Magnificent Seven' (Mag 7), which occupies a significant weight (about 35%) in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 indices, includes Apple, Microsoft, Google, Tesla, NVIDIA, Amazon, and Facebook's parent company Meta Platforms. They are the core driving force behind the S&P 500's record highs and are seen by top investment institutions on Wall Street as the most capable combination to deliver substantial returns for investors in the context of the largest technological transformation since the internet era.

Source: Zhichun Finance

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