Phase one trading "expectations" (risk premium), phase two trading "reality" (physical supply disruptions). We have indeed entered phase two, and the situation is shifting from "expensive" to "extreme."

Will it reach 200 dollars? Based on the current information analysis: this has shifted from "black swan" to "tail risk," with probabilities significantly rising, but it requires several very stringent conditions to be met simultaneously.

Here is a detailed breakdown considering the latest situation:

1. How severe is the infrastructure damage?

The current damage is not only to production facilities but also to the paralysis of logistics arteries:

· Damage on the production side: Iran's key export hub Khark Island has been attacked, Saudi Arabia's largest refinery (Ras Tanura, processing 550,000 barrels/day) has been shut down due to the attack, and Kuwait has implemented 'preventive production cuts'.

· Transportation 'cardiac arrest': Substantial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. About 200 oil tankers are stranded, locking in nearly 8% of global VLCC capacity. Daily throughput has plummeted from the normal about 20 million barrels to only 4 million barrels (mainly Iranian oil).

· Insurance market 'failure': War insurance rates have skyrocketed more than 10 times, and must be renewed weekly. Many shipowners are afraid to sail even with escorts (crew safety cannot be guaranteed).

2. $200: What kind of 'perfect storm' is needed?

The current authoritative institution's projection indicates that $200 is not unfounded, but the triggering threshold is extremely high:

· Core logic: Traditional 'buffers' have failed. In the past, Saudi Arabia could increase production to stabilize oil prices, but now the 'firefighters themselves are trapped in the fire'—the excess production capacity of Gulf oil producers is precisely the target of the impact. Rystad Energy states that nearly 20% of global oil supply disruptions is more than twice that during the Suez Canal crisis.

· Conditions triggering $200:

1. Time exceeds 25 days: The Gulf Cooperation Council countries can only store about 25 days of production; once storage capacity is exhausted, production cuts must be enforced, and the market will genuinely lose over 15 million barrels of supply daily.

2. Escalation of war: If the conflict spreads to Saudi Arabia and the UAE's core production areas, or if Iran continues to attack tankers leading to a long-term closure of the strait.

3. Alternative routes failure: Currently, Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline (5 million barrels/day) is a drop in the bucket and faces the risk of being attacked.

· Extreme scenario forecasts from authoritative institutions:

· Wood Mackenzie: If sustained for several weeks, oil prices need to rise to $150 to suppress demand; oil prices reaching $200 by 2026 is not impossible.

· Deutsche Bank/Bank of America: In extreme scenarios, pointing to $134-150, or even higher.

· Official warning from Iran: Has stated to prepare the world for $200.

3. Roadblocks: What will stop oil prices from reaching $200?

Although the threat is severe, there are several 'fire extinguishers' at work:

· IEA record release: The IEA has agreed to release 400 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves, the largest emergency action in history, aimed at filling short-term gaps.

· Demand destruction: High oil prices can backfire on the economy. If sustained above $120, it may trigger a global recession (especially in Europe and Asia), thereby naturally 'destroying demand'.

· Intervention from the Trump administration: The White House is eager to control oil prices (gasoline prices have reached new highs), possibly compromising with Iran or pressuring oil-producing countries.

4. The next core observation points

Pay attention to the following signals to determine whether to 'chase the rise' or 'take profits':

1. 25-day countdown: Late March is a critical node. If the strait is still not navigable by then, production cuts will begin, and oil prices will head straight for the $120-150 range.

2. Effectiveness of escort: The U.S. announces escort and insurance guarantees, but shipowners are not convinced. If no tankers dare to pass in the coming week, it indicates that the risk premium is far from fully priced.

3. Saudi pipelines: If the east-west pipeline is attacked, it will be the catalyst for an immediate surge in oil prices.

Summary: The rise of crude oil to $100-120 is a high probability event (currently hovering around $90-100). However, $200 requires an 'extreme scenario': that is, a blockade lasting more than 25 days and an escalation of war (striking Saudi oil fields), while demand has not collapsed. This probability is increasing, but has not yet become the baseline scenario.

Since you have grasped both the 'expectation' of the first phase and the 'reality' of the second phase! Next, focus mainly on time (25 days red line) and space (whether the war expands). If your position is heavy, you might consider taking some profits in the $100-120 range, leaving a portion of your position to 'bet' on the low probability tail risk of $200.