Bitcoin is attempting to break above the key resistance level at $74k, which was formed during the consolidation range following the sharp decline in February. Recent on-chain data shows that OG investors are distributing, while new investors are entering the market, indicating a clear transfer of ownership. In addition, the increasing balance of accumulation addresses—wallets that have never sold—suggests a positive long-term outlook.
However, from a short-term market perspective, the data presents a less encouraging picture. On the 1-hour timeframe, a divergence between price and open interest is emerging. While the spot market shows strength, futures traders appear reluctant to take on additional risk. If this lack of bullish positioning in the futures market continues, the current move could turn into a bull trap.
Since stablecoins began to see widespread adoption in 2018, the Bitcoin futures market has grown to be roughly 10 times larger than the spot market. This dynamic should not be underestimated. Historically, a true bull market tends to begin when both spot and futures markets show synchronized strength.
Written by MAC_D