Despite escalating tensions in Iran, Bitcoin continues to show a degree of resilience, particularly compared to equities and commodities, which are increasingly displaying toppish market structures.
This is all the more notable given that the upcoming FOMC meeting is unlikely to deliver any rate cuts. Current probabilities point to a roughly 99% chance of no change.
The key focus will instead be on forward guidance, especially whether the Fed begins to reintroduce the possibility of future rate hikes.
In this broadly unfavorable environment for risk assets, some signals are nevertheless starting to improve for Bitcoin.
On this chart, this is reflected in volumes gradually shifting back in favor of buyers on Binance and Coinbase.
The move remains modest for now, but it marks a clear improvement compared to the conditions observed in February.
On February 16, the 30-day moving average volume delta was deeply negative, with -$145M on Binance and -$88M on Coinbase. Both retail and institutional participants were largely aligned on the sell side.
Today, these averages have moved back into positive territory, around +$21M and +$14M.
This represents an encouraging shift after a period dominated by selling pressure.
That said, this trend still needs confirmation. Liquidity across the crypto market remains relatively thin.
However, if this dynamic continues, it could gradually support price action and allow Bitcoin to break out of its current range.
Written by Darkfost