Today we made another upgrade.
It was noted, with the evidence of the journal in hand, that each narrative has its own temporality. It is not fixed. The famous '21-day cycle' that is so often repeated is not a law. It is an average that works well for memes (7-21 days) and very poorly for infrastructure (45-90 days).
Here are the first three narratives with their first representative tokens and their temporality adjusted by type.
NARRATIVE #1: RWA (Tokenization of Real Assets)
Leading token: $CFG (Centrifuge) / $ONDO
Type: RWA / Institutional
Expected base cycle (Seed → Peak): 30-60 days
Speed: Medium
Adjustment factor: +10% (institutional pace, slower than memes)
Current phase (April 6, 2026): Strong activation 🔵
Estimated window for peak: April 25 – May 15, 2026
Strong pump probability in the next 10 days: 55%
Why now: TVL growing, institutional partnerships, capital rotation from AI to RWA.
NARRATIVE #2: AI Agents
Leading token: $FET (Artificial Superintelligence Alliance)
Type: AI Agents / Infrastructure
Expected base cycle (Seed → Peak): 45-65 days
Speed: Medium-slow
Adjustment factor: +15% (requires technical execution, testnets, revenue on-chain)
Current phase (April 6, 2026): Extended activation 🔵 (has not entered Amplification)
Estimated window for peak: April 23 – May 15, 2026
Strong pump probability in the next 10 days: 40%
Why now: Solid fundamentals (ASI roadmap, agent deployments), but the market is rotating towards RWA and memes. Patience is the strategy, not panic.
NARRATIVE #3: Memecoins
Leading token: $WIF / $PIPPIN (depends on the moment)
Type: Memecoin / Culture
Expected base cycle (Seed → Peak): 7-21 days
Speed: Very fast
Adjustment factor: -20% (faster than average)
Current phase (April 6, 2026): Amplification 🟡 (preparing exit)
Estimated window for peak: 3-10 days from today
Strong pump probability in the next 10 days: 65% (but with risk of violent dump)
Why now: Coordinated KOLs, retail FOMO, fast rotation. It is not for holding; it is for scalping and exiting.
MY CURRENT POSITION (WITH $FET AND $CFG)
$FET (AI Agents):
Entry date: March 13-14, 2026 (≈23-24 days ago)
Narrative type: AI Agents / Infrastructure
Expected base cycle: 45-65 days
Days since strong Seed: ≈25-27 days
Current phase: Extended activation (no pump yet)
Estimated peak window: April 23 – May 15, 2026
Pump probability in the next 10 days: 40%
Strategy: Hold without adding more. Stop at $0.21. Wait for catalyst (TestNet, x402 volume).
My reading: I entered believing in a 21-day cycle. The mistake was mine (or the model I was using then). Now I know this is infrastructure, it takes 2-3 months. Selling now would turn a timing mistake into a real loss. Hold, patience, and I adjust the stop.
$CFG (Centrifuge - RWA):
Entry date: To be evaluated (I haven't entered yet or I entered a few days ago)
Narrative type: RWA / Institutional
Expected base cycle: 30-60 days
Days since strong Seed: ≈12-18 days
Current phase: Strong activation (better moment than AI Agents)
Estimated peak window: April 25 – May 15, 2026
Pump probability in the next 10 days: 55%
Strategy: Gradual entry (DCA in 2-3 tranches). Wide stop due to being RWA.
My reading: RWA is fresher than AI Agents. Fewer days of accumulation, less narrative fatigue, more capital rotation entering. It is no guarantee of anything, but the timing is better than in $FET.
CLOSING OF DAY 23
Lesson noted in the journal:
Not all narratives live at the same pace. Memes run, infrastructure walks, and those who don't understand sell in the extended accumulation phase just before the breakout.
⚠️ This is not financial advice. It is my journal of experience exploring narratives. Always do your own research and remember: never invest what you are not willing to lose