Wage data indicates continued long-term inflationary pressures despite signs of moderation, as the average hourly wage increased by 3.5% in March 2026 compared to 3.8% in February 2026. This suggests a slowdown in annual wage growth; however, the ongoing increase over the past six months shows a strong trend of wage pressures. At the same time, the overall trend of temporary employment has declined despite reaching 2.475 million jobs, and this drop indicates that companies have become more cautious in future hiring, a signal typically associated with increased recession risks. This combination creates a complex environment for gold, as high wages support bond yields and the strength of the dollar, which puts pressure on gold, while recession risks increase gold's value as a safe haven.

Technical analysis of gold and silver...Key risks

From a technical standpoint, the spot gold price has rebounded strongly from the 200-day simple moving average to close above $4,400, a level defined by the expanding wedge support line. As long as the price remains above $4,400, the chances of a breakout above $4,800 remain high, as surpassing the dotted red trendline at $4,800 will open the way towards $5,000. Additionally, the correction towards the 200-day simple moving average has pushed the Relative Strength Index (RSI) into overbought levels, and it is now approaching the average level, which