Last night there were two major events: the market closed moderately up (Dow +353 points to 51202, S&P +0.5%, Nasdaq only slightly up 0.31%) and the largest IPO in history, SpaceX, officially went public. Let's talk results: SPCX closed its first day up 19.34%, at $161.11.

With this move, Elon Musk became the world's first trillionaire, and SpaceX's market cap briefly soared past 2 trillion, securing its spot as the sixth largest publicly traded company in the U.S.

Beautiful, really beautiful. But I want to ask you not to just look at the 'up 19%' number; break down the entire trajectory of SPCX today: it opened at 150 (already well above the 135 listing price), surged to a high of 176.52 during the day, then pulled back and closed at 161.

Got it? The opening was close to the peak, hitting 176, and closing at 161. This means that anyone who chased in above 170 today is already sitting on a loss before the day even wraps up, with the 19% gain calculated from the issuance price of 135, which the vast majority of retail investors couldn't even snag.

What you can buy is the market price starting from 150 after the opening, or even 170. This is exactly what I've been saying repeatedly: the 'high open and high close' on the first day of a new stock means the high is the opening price, and it traps those who chase the high. You see the +19% headline, but how many of those who rushed in with real money actually got in at the tip of that spike?

【I'm not the only one saying this; analysts are warning about it too】

I'm not being an armchair quarterback. Today, several institutional analysts echoed what I wrote a couple of days ago: the first-day surge doesn't indicate long-term value. Over the next few months, SPCX's stock price is more likely to be tossed around by 'index inclusion buy pressure, extremely thin float, lock-up expirations, and pure FOMO', rather than being driven by the company's fundamentals. In other words, this is a stock that is short-term led by 'market mechanisms and emotions', not 'the business itself'.

This is exactly what I warned about in those previous pitfall reminders — thin float, lock-up periods, and not getting swept up in emotions — it's all the same.

【Also on the crypto side, I've got to make this clear】 The crypto scene is buzzing: The SPCX perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid spiked to 176, then pulled back to around 172, with over 300 million in trading volume in 24 hours. Let me emphasize again: those are leveraged perpetual derivatives, not SpaceX stocks. The price dances with emotions; you might think you 'bought SpaceX', but what you really got is a bet tracking it. Don't confuse the two.

【Here's my approach】 So, I didn't touch SPCX today, just like I said yesterday. No FOMO here. The 19% excitement belongs to others, and I'm not green with envy — because I know that in that 19%, I most likely won't benefit, but rather face the risk of getting caught in a high chase. I'm going to keep my powder dry: I'll watch how it moves after next week's index inclusion buy pressure fades, look at whether early investors will dump when the lock-up period approaches, and see if there's any follow-up to the 'Tesla merger' rumors.

Wait for this stock to gradually shift from 'emotion pricing' back to 'fundamental pricing' before deciding if it's actually worth this price. As for my own practice account, the same routine applies: the fixed 10U every day, no changing the rhythm just because SPCX is making a splash.

Here's a final takeaway for you, bro: The key lesson today isn't 'SPCX shot up 19%', but rather that it opened at 150, peaked at 176, and closed at 161 — it's using real money to show you what 'a sexy story can bite back' means.

Understanding this candlestick is worth more than chasing any new stock. Have a great weekend, keep an eye on the ball, and stick to your dollar-cost averaging.

⚠️ Risk Reminder: Investing carries risks, and new stocks can be highly volatile on their first day; thin float, lock-up periods, and index inclusions will amplify volatility. This is purely my personal observation and approach, not constituting any investment advice. Please rely on the platform's actual information regarding SPCX and its mirrors/derivatives risks, and make rational decisions after verifying.