Bitcoin is running into some uncomfortable data right now, and it’s not something you can brush off as normal noise. Let’s walk through it simply.
According to analysts at CryptoQuant, Bitcoin is heading toward one of its weakest fourth-quarter closes on record. The current quarterly return sits around -19.15%. That’s not just a pullback—it’s the kind of number that has often shown up before further downside.
Is This Just Normal Volatility
Not really.
When you zoom out to quarterly performance, the shift is obvious:
Early 2025 showed steady growth.
Q4 flipped that momentum sharply into negative territory.
Historically, a deeply negative Q4 often acts like an anchor, dragging price lower for the next couple of months. In other words, this doesn’t look like a quick shakeout—it looks more like the start of a broader corrective phase.
Capitulation Signals: Why the Market Feels So Tense
Several on-chain indicators suggest selling pressure is still very real:
SOPR at 0.99 (< 1): Coins are being sold at a loss, a classic capitulation signal.
Short-Term Holder MVRV at 0.87: Recent buyers are underwater and emotionally vulnerable.
35.66% of supply underwater: Over a third of all BTC was bought at higher prices, creating ongoing sell pressure.
Fear & Greed Index at 20: Extreme fear, often seen late in corrections—but not always at the bottom.
Put simply: selling pressure hasn’t burned itself out yet.
What About Demand
This is where things get weaker.
Market cap growth at -11.65%: Capital is leaving the market, not entering it.
ETF outflows: Roughly $825.7M exited Bitcoin ETFs in just one week (Dec 18–24).
Coinbase Premium Gap at -66.11: U.S. investors are selling more aggressively than buying.
So it’s not just price falling—demand itself is shrinking.
The Big Picture: What Does This Mean for 2026?
CryptoQuant’s base case, given all these signals lining up, is that the correction likely extends into Q1 2026.
Until:
capitulation selling slows down, and
demand metrics begin to stabilize,
any bounce is likely to face heavy resistance rather than turn into a clean recovery.
The Real Question
Is this:
the final shakeout before another long-term rally, like previous deep drawdown
or
the start of a more extended bearish phase
Curious to hear your take—last chance to buy, or the beginning of something longer
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